In June 2026, the US tech sector exhibited pronounced structural divergence. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,888.84, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.52% to 13,371.47. AI computing power stocks continued to lead, but the underlying capital logic shifted sharply from "broad-based gains" to "performance-driven results." Nvidia, the most dominant player in AI infrastructure, traded at around $205 pre-market on June 15, with the previous day’s closing price at $208 and a total market cap of roughly $4.97 trillion. What valuation rationale supports this scale? Does Wall Street’s consensus "strong buy" rating and target price range of $270–$300 still hold up? Meanwhile, Gate officially launched real US and Hong Kong stock trading in June 2026, enabling users to allocate global equity assets directly with USDT. This article analyzes Nvidia’s valuation model using core frameworks—free cash flow, price-to-earnings ratio, and scenario modeling—while integrating Gate’s new stock trading feature to provide crypto investors with data-driven insights and methodological guidance for participating in traditional financial asset allocation.
Understanding the Three-Layer NVDA Valuation Framework
Data Baseline: Nvidia’s Latest Earnings Snapshot
Before diving into the valuation model, it’s essential to anchor our analysis on Nvidia’s Q1 FY2027 earnings (ending April 2026). Nvidia posted revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% year-over-year, marking the third consecutive quarter of accelerating growth (previous quarters were 73% and 62%, respectively). Its data center segment contributed $75.2 billion, up 92% YoY, accounting for over 90% of total revenue. Gross margin remained near 75%. The company executed about $20 billion in buybacks and dividends in a single quarter and authorized an additional $80 billion for treasury stock.
These fundamentals stand out even more in comparison with competitors. Broadcom’s AI semiconductor business is projected to reach $56 billion for the year, nearly 180% YoY growth. Marvell Technology’s stock soared over 200% year-to-date. Yet, following Nvidia’s earnings release on June 12, the stock only edged up 0.16%, with no momentum-driven rally—indicating that the focus of NVDA’s valuation model has already shifted from "beating expectations" to "how much future growth is priced in."
Framework One: Free Cash Flow as the Core Valuation Metric
The foundation of the NVDA valuation model centers on free cash flow, not just revenue growth. Using a "normalized free cash flow + net cash + conservative multiplier" approach: Nvidia’s Q4 FY2026 free cash flow hit $34.9 billion, with gross margin steady at 75%, highlighting its monopoly pricing power in the AI chip market. Analysts and institutions forecast Nvidia’s 2026 free cash flow at roughly $96 billion, 2027 at $212.5 billion, and over $410 billion by 2031.
Plugging these figures into a conservative valuation model yields two scenarios. In the pessimistic case, assuming FY2027 free cash flow of $140 billion and net cash of $40 billion, a 20x multiple supports a market cap of about $2.84 trillion. In the optimistic scenario—if the market accepts "perpetual AI infrastructure growth" and applies a higher multiple—the current $4.97 trillion market cap requires FY2027 free cash flow of about $228.5 billion to justify. This gap reflects the "AI arms race premium" embedded in the current share price.
Framework Two: Price-to-Earnings Ratio and Divergence Between Insiders and Institutions
From a P/E perspective, as of June 15, NVDA’s price corresponds to an adjusted P/E of roughly 31.42x. UBS’s May 13, 2026 report, based on a 2027 EPS estimate of $14.35 and a 19x P/E, set a target price of $275. The current share price implies a 2027 forward P/E of about 15.7x, below historical averages. Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and other institutions have recently raised their revenue forecasts and price targets.
However, there’s a notable divergence between institutional positioning and insider trading. Sixty analysts maintain "buy" or "strong buy" ratings, and 2,991 institutions have increased their Nvidia holdings, viewing it as a core AI infrastructure asset. Yet, over the past six months, management recorded 98 sell trades and zero buys. This "insider selling vs. institutional buying" contradiction is a key variable that must be factored into the current NVDA valuation model.
Framework Three: Key Variables in Scenario Analysis
Based on the frameworks above, the current valuation must withstand stress testing across three variables:
Technology Iteration Pace
The Blackwell platform has entered mass shipment, with customers reporting increased procurement difficulty and longer delivery cycles. Demand remains tight. The next-generation Rubin architecture has been sampled to top partners, but large-scale shipments are expected to begin in the second half of FY2027. Assuming an 80% yield, Nvidia will require about 51% of industry-wide CoWoS capacity in 2026, rising to 66% in 2027.
Pressure from Customer-Developed Chips
Goldman Sachs’ latest report notes that Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta’s combined 2026 capital expenditure is projected at $770 billion. This drives Nvidia’s revenue but also signals that data center clients are accelerating in-house chip development, which could erode Nvidia’s pricing power over the long term.
China Market Variable
The company’s outlook assumes zero data center revenue contribution from China, a market that previously accounted for over one-fifth of data center sales. If geopolitical tensions ease, this could provide significant upside. If the status quo persists, current forecasts already price in this constraint.
Gate Stock Trading Launch: A New Channel for Crypto Investors to Access NVDA
With a clear understanding of the NVDA valuation model, the next question is: How can crypto investors participate in NVDA allocation with minimal friction? Gate’s real stock trading feature, launched in June 2026, offers a practical solution.
Dual Coverage of Hong Kong and US Markets
On June 1, 2026, Gate launched US stock trading, enabling users to trade stocks and ETFs on major US exchanges—including NYSE, Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, NYSE American, and BATS—using USDT. On June 11, Hong Kong stock trading went live, allowing users to access over 1,000 Hong Kong-listed stocks directly via the Gate app, covering major companies like Tencent, Meituan, Xiaomi, BYD, and HSBC. With this, Gate’s stock trading is fully integrated across both app and web, supporting US and Hong Kong markets simultaneously and creating a unified gateway for crypto and traditional financial asset allocation.
Core Advantages: USDT Settlement and Low Entry Barriers
Compared to traditional brokerage accounts, Gate’s stock trading offers three distinct advantages. First, USDT settlement: Users don’t need to open a brokerage account or convert currencies to HKD or USD—every transaction is completed in USDT, keeping funds within the Gate ecosystem. Second, ultra-low minimum investment: The platform supports fractional shares starting at 0.01 shares, so users can invest with as little as $10 USDT, making blue-chip stocks accessible to retail investors. Third, VIP rates and extended trading hours: The VIP tier system is fully integrated with stock trading—holding $2,000 qualifies for VIP, with trading fees as low as 0.023%, plus pre-market and after-hours trading, expanding US stock trading to 16 hours a day, five days a week.
From an industry perspective, Gate’s move goes further—connecting to traditional securities markets with "real stocks" rather than "tokenized exposures." The platform partners with licensed brokers for actual asset purchase and holding, recognizing investors as beneficial owners entitled to dividends and corporate actions.
Trading Access and Instructions
Gate stock trading involves four steps:
- Update the Gate app to version 8.23.5 or higher;
- Enter the TradFi section, select "Stocks," then choose "US Stocks" or "Hong Kong Stocks" based on your target market;
- Transfer USDT from your spot or unified account to your stock account;
- Search for NVDA (US stock) or your desired Hong Kong stock code, select the quantity (supports multiples of 0.01 shares), and confirm the transaction.
Trading hours: US stocks support pre-market and after-hours trading for full 16×5 coverage. Hong Kong stocks follow HKEX’s schedule (Monday to Friday, 9:30–16:00 HKT).
NVDA Valuation Model and Gate Stock Trading: Portfolio Strategies
Combining the valuation frameworks above with Gate’s trading capabilities, crypto investors can build a layered NVDA allocation strategy:
Dollar-Cost Averaging for Position Accumulation
Given Nvidia’s strong fundamentals but elevated valuation, short-term trading is challenging. A "periodic purchase plus phased profit-taking" approach is recommended. Through Gate, investors can use USDT to buy NVDA fractional shares at fixed amounts (e.g., $50–$100 USDT weekly). The minimum investment of 0.01 shares aligns perfectly with dollar-cost averaging requirements.
Hedging and Cross-Market Allocation
In black swan scenarios—such as a slowdown in AI capital expenditure or accelerated in-house chip development triggering a valuation correction—Gate allows users to hold both crypto and stock positions within the same account. Investors can dynamically rebalance between crypto and equities, rather than passively holding a single risk exposure. Additionally, Gate’s Hong Kong stock service covers Tencent, Alibaba, BYD, and other names, offering more options for cross-market diversification.
Dynamic Monitoring of Valuation Indicators
After buying NVDA on Gate, investors should continuously track three core valuation anchors: whether the P/E moves toward the historical low of 15x, whether free cash flow aligns with quarterly growth trends, and whether insider selling continues to expand. When all three indicators converge, it marks a key window for position adjustment.
Conclusion
In summary, the core takeaway from the NVDA valuation model is this: Nvidia’s fundamental moat in AI infrastructure remains solid. Free cash flow and gross margin data confirm its monopoly pricing power, but the $4.97 trillion market cap already factors in a highly optimistic "perpetual AI arms race" premium. Upside risks include incremental demand from a structural shift toward AI inference, easing geopolitical constraints in China, and the expansion of new TAM from the Vera CPU, estimated at $200 billion this year. Downside risks involve accelerated customer chip development, slower-than-expected Blackwell mass production, and a plateau in hyperscaler capital expenditure triggering a growth inflection.
For crypto industry users, Gate’s stock trading feature dramatically lowers the cost and barrier to accessing premium tech assets like NVDA. With USDT, you can manage crypto and traditional stock assets in one platform, rebalance dynamically, and avoid cross-platform transfers, international wire payments, or brokerage account approvals. All you need is a phone or computer and your Gate account—then you can invest USDT directly into NVDA and share in the long-term beta gains of AI computing infrastructure.
