Tonight, the new master of the Federal Reserve is about to hand down a “death sentence” to the crypto market
Bitcoin has fallen from its all-time high of $126,000 to $65,000 now—down by half.
You think it’s over? Tonight, the real trial is only just beginning.
At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, Kevin Woor—newly appointed chair of the Federal Reserve, personally picked by Trump—will step onto the podium for his first FOMC press conference since taking office.
This is not an ordinary rate meeting. This is a historic moment when the Federal Reserve’s independence is subjected to an “extreme pressure test.”
On one side, Trump has been shouting on social media for two years: “cut rates, cut rates, and cut rates again.” On the other side, the US May CPI surged to 4.2% year-over-year—returning to the “4 era” for the first time in three years, and moving farther and farther away from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
A person “specifically selected by the president to cut rates” is standing on the edge of a cliff where not only can they not cut—but they may even have to raise rates.
Every word that Woor uses will be translated by the market into real money. And in that real money, your Bitcoin positions are hidden.
Let’s first look at what will happen tonight.
There is no suspense about the interest rate itself—the market already assigns a 99% probability that it will stay put, with rates maintained at 3.5%-3.75%.
The real nuclear bomb is hidden in three places:
First, the “dovish tilt” in the statement will be removed.
For the past few years, the Federal Reserve has kept a line tucked into its statements: “the extent and timing of further adjustments.” This seemingly mild wording is, in fact, telling the market: our next move is very likely to be a rate cut.
Tonight, this line will most likely be taken out.
What does that mean? The official obituary of the “rate-cutting cycle.”
88% of the economists surveyed expect this wording to be removed. This isn’t a word game—it’s a declaration to the market: the era of easing is over, don’t dream anymore.
Second, the dot plot may lose a “dot”—Woor’s own.
Woor has publicly criticized the dot plot for “keeping the Federal Reserve locked into forecasts for longer than it should.” He also said at a hearing: “The Federal Reserve is made up of people. And then they will stick to these forecasts for longer than they should.”
So tonight, he will very likely not submit his own interest rate forecast.
This breaks a 14-year tradition of the Federal Reserve.
The market has always treated the dot plot as the most important “policy anchor.” Now the anchor may be gone. How will investors react? Panic, confusion, selling—you pick one.
Third, expectations for rate cuts are pushed directly from 2026 to 2027.
The March dot plot still showed one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027. Now what? A CNBC survey shows respondents unanimously believe that there will be no change in rates until 2027.
No rate hikes in 2026 counts as a win. Rate cuts may only begin in 2027.
This is a nuclear-level impact on long-end interest rates and tech stock valuations. For Bitcoin? The same nuclear impact—only with an even larger payload.
The market has already made a decision on Woor.
Federal funds futures show investors expect the probability of rate hikes before December 2026 to be above 80%.
You heard that right—80% probability for rate hikes, 0% probability for rate cuts.
A person brought in by Trump to “cut rates” faces a market with an over-80% probability of rate hikes in his first outing after taking office. Who would dare write this script?
What Woor now needs to think about isn’t “whether to hike,” but “how to say no to hiking in a way that keeps the market from breaking.”
The true endgame is here:
Externally, after the US-Iran ceasefire framework is reached, oil prices are falling—this is the disinflationary factor.
Internally, stubborn core inflation, CPI breaking 4%, and a resilient labor market—these are the inflationary factors.
Which will Woor choose as the basis for policy?
My judgment: he will use the most hawkish wording and take the most cautious actions.
He’ll sound tough—suppressing inflation expectations and telling the market that “the Federal Reserve will not allow inflation to run unchecked.” But in actual actions, he’ll wait for the transmission effect of falling oil prices, giving himself political room.
After all, the boss sitting in the White House is still waiting for him to cut rates.
What does this mean for the crypto market?
Just look—Bitcoin spot ETFs have had net outflows for three straight weeks. In the first week of June alone, there were weekly outflows of $3.4 billion, setting a record.
Today, the Fear & Greed Index fell to 22, “Extreme Fear.” A few weeks ago, that number was in single digits.
Bitcoin fell from its May high of $82,000 to an early-June low of $59,000—a 28% drop. From mid-May to early June, cumulative ETF outflows exceeded $4.5 billion.
And after tonight?
If Woor is hawkish enough and the dot plot is completely removed from rate-cut guidance, BTC will most likely retest the $60,000 level.
If he leaves a small “dovish” opening in his hawkish language—there may be a brief relief rally, but don’t expect a reversal.
The real bottom isn’t at $65,000, and it’s not at $60,000. The real bottom is the day the Federal Reserve reopens the rate-cut window—and that day will be in 2027.
“Trump chose Woor to cut rates, but inflation chose Woor to hike. Tonight, the market will find out #我的Gate交易时刻 who the true master is.”
