In just 4 days, it surged by $1.2 trillion in value. SpaceX’s market cap surpassed Microsoft—but who is swimming naked? You’ll know soon enough.
If you didn’t sleep last night, chances are you’ve been watching SPCX’s candlestick chart.
During the day it rocketed to $229.85, with its market cap briefly topping $3 trillion. It surpassed Amazon, surpassed Microsoft, and became the world’s fourth-largest. Listed only 4 days ago, the stock price has gained more than 70% from the $135 issue price.
In 4 days, it added $1.2 trillion in value.
What does that even mean? One SpaceX is worth 2.6 Teslas. Elon Musk’s personal net worth has skyrocketed to $1.4 trillion—8.8 times Buffett. The wealth added in a single day is more than the total net worth of the world’s 10th-richest person.
But what I want to say is:
“Before the tide goes out, the revelers never believe they’ll be swimming naked.”
And SpaceX’s tide is expected to start receding as early as August at the fastest.
First, figure out the truth behind the surge—don’t let emotions lead you astray.
From $2.1 trillion to $3 trillion in 4 days is not driven by fundamentals. It’s driven by an imbalance in supply and demand.
This time, SpaceX’s IPO only released about 4.25% of its float. Yet subscription demand exceeded $350 billion.
Extremely limited supply meets extremely bloated demand—so the price gets pushed up hard, forcibly.
Retail investors are going wild. Vanda Research data shows that in the first two days before SpaceX listed, the scale of retail buying exceeded the total retail buying of the entire U.S. stock market from last week.
Even the options market blew up. For 210-dollar call options expiring on June 18, daily trading volume hit 45,900 contracts.
Everyone is betting—betting that it will keep rising.
But has anyone looked at the fundamentals?
Full-year revenue for 2025 is $18.67 billion, with a net loss of $4.94 billion. In the first quarter of 2026, it lost another $4.28 billion.
The price-to-sales ratio is over 140x. Nvidia is 30x; Apple is 8x.
Starlink is the only cash cow. The rockets are losing money, and xAI posted an operating loss of $2.469 billion in the first quarter.
A company that loses nearly $5 billion every year, with a market cap of $3 trillion.
Tell me—does that seem reasonable?
But what keeps me up the most isn’t the price right now, but what will happen next.
On June 18, SpaceX was added to the FTSE Russell and CRSP indexes. It’s expected to trigger forced buying of $10 to $16 billion by passive funds.
On June 26, it was added to the MSCI index, expected to trigger another $3 to $5 billion.
On July 6, it was added to the Nasdaq 100 index, expected to trigger $8 to $12 billion.
Will these passive funds be the final bagholders?
Passive funds are a price stabilizer, not a driving force. They’re forced buyers, not buyers that are actively bullish.
The real test is in August.
After SpaceX releases its Q2 earnings report, 30% of insiders’ shares will unlock. That equals 12% of all outstanding shares. After that, every few weeks, another 7% will unlock.
Elon Musk’s shares are locked for 366 days, but as for everyone else—employees, early investors, private equity funds—they don’t have that kind of faith.
When they see their stock up 70%, what do you think they’ll do?
They’ll sell.
And once selling starts, that “extremely limited supply” instantly turns into “massive sell pressure.”
CFRA has already given a “Sell” rating, with a 12-month target price of $115—more than 40% below the current price.
So my conclusion is simple:
Those few weeks when passive capital flows in may be the last round of celebration.
The MSCI inclusion on June 26 and the Nasdaq 100 inclusion on July 6—these two waves of passive buying could push the price up again. But that’s passive buying, not active conviction.
Only after the August earnings report, unlocks, and insiders cashing out all stack up will a true equilibrium price emerge.
Then we’ll know whether SpaceX is worth $2 trillion, $3 trillion, or $1.5 trillion.
And every dollar you chase in right now is placing a bet against the people who will be able to sell when August unlocks.
“The market is pricing Elon Musk’s dreams, but your account can only pay for reality.”
Passive funds are not the Liberation Army. They’re just the last batch of forced buyers. Real pricing power has never been in passive funds—it’s in the hands of those who can sell in August. #我的Gate交易时刻 #TradFiCFD黄金大师赛 #Gate现货交易量逆势增长增幅全球第一 $BTC $ETH $SPCX
