#美伊谈判博弈 U.S. stocks surged due to Iran ceasefire, but crypto refused to follow.

This is not divergence; this is a signal.

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【Market Conditions】

BTC: $73,700 (24h -0.25%, low $72,512 → high $74,514)

ETH: $2,019 (24h +0.12%, low $1,976 → high $2,046)

SOL: $82.03 (24h -0.21%, low $80.35 → high $83.24)

In the past 24 hours, all three assets followed the same script:

Asian early morning dip — European and American rebound — currently trading in the middle range.

BTC found support at $72,512 and quickly rebounded to $74,514, now retreating to around $73,700. Volume structure indicates that the selling pressure during this decline mainly came from the Asian session, while European and American funds show willingness to absorb, but not enough to trigger a reversal.

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【Today’s Key Hotspots】

There is only one main theme: Iran ceasefire negotiations.

U.S. media reports Trump has received a 60-day extension for the Hormuz ceasefire agreement, awaiting signing. Once the news broke, oil prices retreated, and global stock markets hit new highs — textbook risk appetite recovery.

Crypto rarely followed suit.

There are two implications behind this:

1. The macro pricing mechanism for crypto is temporarily malfunctioning, no longer following traditional risk assets.

2. Capital pressure masks positive news driven by events — BTC ETF net outflows for nine consecutive trading days, totaling over $2 billion in May; ETH futures open interest hits a record high, while price drops below $2,000 — a typical “short futures + suppress spot” combo.

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I see two possible scenarios now.

Scenario A: Agreement signed, risk assets continue to rally wildly, while crypto, under capital pressure, continues its own path. Bottoming out, possibly even making new lows.

Scenario B: Short covering. Record short positions + monthly options expiry + soft macro environment. Once triggered (ETF buying, regulatory news, big whale bottom-fishing), a significant short squeeze could occur.

I currently lean more towards A happening, but B’s conditions are building up.

The first Friday of June is the monthly options expiry — often a point of amplified volatility. Not the time to bet on direction, but to observe signals.

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【Risk Warning】

The above reflects personal opinions and does not constitute investment advice. #24h加密合约清算破4亿美元