#BrentReturnsTo100 The U.S. military has extended its attacks on Iran for a thirteenth night, and this latest development marks the spillover of the conflict into a new front: the Red Sea. The Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen announced they had attacked two Saudi oil tankers, adding to the de facto blockage in the Strait of Hormuz the threat to a second oil export route. CENTCOM said it targeted Iranian command centers, drone depots, communications networks, and coastal surveillance facilities, with at least four people killed in the attacks.

The surge in oil prices is truly dramatic; Brent crude surged more than six percent on Thursday, crossing the $100 mark for the first time since May, with some reports indicating a daily increase of up to eleven percent, reaching $101. This is the highest level seen since the signing of a temporary peace agreement last month, effectively signifying the collapse of that agreement. Trump said that if the Houthis repeat these attacks, both they and Iran will face "major military sanctions," keeping the risk of further escalation of the conflict alive.

Meanwhile, the US House of Representatives passed a bill that would halt the war with Iran without congressional approval, but a similar attempt failed in the Senate, indicating a growing unease even within Republican ranks regarding Trump's use of war powers.

On the tariff front, the development you mentioned is confirmed; the US administration imposed new tariffs of between 10% and 12.5% on sixty trading partners, covering 99.4% of total US imports. The European Union reacted strongly to this move, dismissing the alleged forced labor charges as unfounded, and similar criticisms came from other major trading partners.

This picture means that two separate waves of risk-offs, stemming from both geopolitics and trade policy, are hitting the market simultaneously. The oil shock is pushing inflation expectations higher, while rising bond yields are increasing uncertainty about the Fed's interest rate path, a combination that is directly putting pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.

In this environment, the key point to watch is the ongoing controversy surrounding reports that a new ceasefire proposal brokered by the Iraqi Prime Minister has been rejected by Iran. While some sources confirm the rejection, Iranian officials and Iraqi authorities deny it. Whether this uncertainty will be resolved remains the most critical development determining the direction of both oil prices and risk assets in the coming days.

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