I. Market Overview: Spike then Reversal, Loses $64,000

On July 25, Bitcoin saw a volatile spike-and-reversal move. Early Friday morning, BTC briefly surged to $65,705, but then faced strong sell pressure. Within 7 hours, it fell all the way to an intraday low of $63,666. The market cap wiped out more than $20 million. As of the time of publication, Bitcoin is temporarily around $63,878, down about 0.30% on the day.

This drop triggered large-scale liquidation of leveraged positions—across the whole market, $312 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, including $70 million in long positions in Bitcoin. In the past 24 hours, 91,975 crypto traders were liquidated, with total liquidations of $342 million.

II. Macros and Policy: Mixed Signals From Bulls and Bears
Bearish factors are in the lead. U.S. tech giants were hit by a wave of selloffs, with a daily market-value decline of $797B; Trump plans to impose 10%-12.5% tariffs on 60 trade partners. Inflation expectations heat up, and the market worries the Fed rate cuts may be delayed, putting overall pressure on risk assets. Escalation in geopolitical tensions also pushed investors to reduce exposure to risk assets.

The policy picture is also not optimistic. The market had generally expected the U.S. “CLARITY Digital Assets Act” to move forward—an important fundamental support for this round of gains. But the bill has fallen into a deadlock in bipartisan negotiations, leaving an estimated probability of only 35%. However, the National Fraternal Police Associations have withdrawn their opposition to the bill, so there are still uncertainties in the legislative process.

III. Technicals: Bears in Control, Key Levels in Jeopardy
Technical indicators are broadly bearish. The lower band of the 4-hour Bollinger Band has been pierced, with the bear alignment clearly in place. MACD bullish momentum continues to fade; RSI is down to 33.44. Although it has entered the oversold zone, capital refuses to step in and support. The morning rebound faces pressure near the 64,180 level of the Bollinger middle band, while strong resistance sits above at 64,272.

$64,000 becomes the line between bulls and bears. This level is not only a psychological breakpoint, but also aligns with the 4-hour 200 EMA and a prior consolidation area. If the 4-hour candlestick confirms a breakdown below $64,000, the next target points directly to $62,335. Liquidation data shows that if BTC breaks below $61,193, the cumulative liquidation intensity of long positions on mainstream CEXs will reach $1.01B.

Bitcoin is currently under a typical pattern of “policy expectations miss + macro bearish forces converging.” In the short term, the bearish trend has not ended. The 64,800-65,500 area overhead forms a strong resistance zone. Downside, closely watch the $64,000 level; once it’s lost, the room for further adjustment will open up further. Until the policy picture becomes clear, the market will likely stay in a weak consolidation-to-chop range, and investors should watch for further transmission of cross-market panic sentiment. #夏日创作营