As of July 25, Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $1,861, with intraday pressure pulling it back to the $1,856 range. Earlier, ETH briefly fell below the $1,900 psychological level, and is now repeatedly consolidating within a narrow $1,850–$1,900 range as bullish-bear disagreement intensifies. On the 4-hour timeframe, the MACD shows a bearish crossover. The short-term moving averages (5, 10, and 30 periods) are above the current price, forming dynamic resistance. Overall, the short-term outlook remains weak.

$1,850 is currently the most critical support level. If it breaks, the market will test the $1,820–$1,800 range, and could even move lower toward $1,750. On the upside resistance side, ETH needs to reclaim $1,890–$1,900 to regain confidence. $1,950–$1,960 is a dense pressure zone, and only a breakout on increased volume can open up room for a move toward $2,000.

The main factors weighing on ETH right now are macro: the Middle East situation has pushed up oil prices, inflation expectations are heating up, and the market worries that the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts may be delayed. However, institutions have continued to send positive signals—July’s spot ETH ETFs have seen consecutive net inflows, with BlackRock’s ETHA continuously leading purchases. Whales have also recently added ETH worth about $20.59 million. This divergence—retail pessimism while institutions accumulate—often appears as one of the characteristics of a market bottom at certain stages.

In the short term, despite macro headwinds, ETH still faces downside risk, and the gains and losses around $1,850 will determine the near-term direction. But on-chain data and institutional fund flows have not deteriorated in sync, and the medium- to long-term structure still shows resilience. Investors should wait patiently for a clearer direction and avoid blindly chasing rallies or panic-selling.

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