#夏日创作营 The dollar, gold, oil, and US stocks all surged together; the yen plunged to a new 40-year low. Why is this so weird?

Over this period, global financial markets have experienced something that no economist can really explain. Gold is up, oil is up, copper is up, US stocks are up, and the dollar is also up. Five assets that should be fighting each other are holding hands and rising together. The only one being dragged along and rubbed on the ground is the yen. The USD/JPY directly hit 163, the lowest level in nearly 40 years since 1986.

Wall Street analysts stayed up all night flipping through reports, trying to use various models to explain this abnormal phenomenon, but no matter how they fit the pieces, nothing matches. In fact, it doesn’t need to be that complicated. This isn’t “market failure.” It’s a collective reflection of a geopolitical drama playing out in financial markets. Behind every candlestick is a geo-story unfolding.

First: The Strait of Hormuz is being locked down.

On July 8, Trump announced—before the whole world at the NATO summit—that the US-Iran memorandum had been “terminated.” Immediately afterward, the US military carried out airstrikes on Iran for multiple consecutive nights, with targets ranging from coastal missile positions all the way inland to power plants and bridges. The goal was very clear—all of it concentrated on Iran’s control nodes over the Strait of Hormuz.

Military experts agree on the interpretation: this is not punitive strikes; it’s the systematic stripping of Iran’s ability to exercise military control over the strait.

Iran’s response came faster than anyone could imagine. On July 19, Iran’s Fars News Agency, citing sources within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said the navigational throughput of the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to zero. This chokepoint, responsible for transporting about one-fifth of the world’s oil, was squeezed shut by Iran. Under normal conditions, oil-exporting countries along the Persian Gulf ship out more than 20 million barrels of crude per day on average. Now, crude oil exports from Iraq, Kuwait, and Iran have been cut by more than 60%. The strait’s average daily passage fell from more than 20 vessels before July 15 to single digits directly on July 16.

The United States wasn’t idle either. On July 14, the US announced the resumption of its maritime blockade against Iran, covering all Iranian ports and coastal areas, without distinguishing by the flag under which vessels sail. You lock the strait, I lock the ports. Two major powers simultaneously showed a “throat-locking” stance on a waterway that is only a few dozen kilometers wide. This isn’t war—it’s mutually choking each other’s necks. Whoever loosens first loses.

Second: The Strait of Malacca—the second lock is already hung up.

If you think being locked at Hormuz is already deadly, the next development may keep you from sleeping even more. On July 20, Yemen’s Houthi forces announced a “maritime blockade” against Saudi Arabia, effective immediately. The Houthis’ spokesperson said very directly: “We’re responding to a blockade with a blockade.”

They targeted the Strait of Malacca. This strait connects the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, the shortest maritime route between Europe and Asia. For energy exports from Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain, besides passing through the Strait of Hormuz, another major route is the Red Sea via the Strait of Malacca into the Indian Ocean. Now that Hormuz is locked by Iran and Malacca is threatened by the Houthis, pressure hits two chokepoints at once.

This isn’t a coincidence. Who stands behind the Houthis? Iran. Who stands behind Iran? The entire axis of resistance. You poke me at one point; I choke your neck at both straits at the same time.

Hormuz plus Malacca—two of the world’s major energy chokepoints are under simultaneous strain. This isn’t a situation where one plus one equals two; it’s a chain reaction where one plus one equals three or even four. Shipping companies begin rerouting vessels to sail around the Cape of Good Hope. Each voyage adds more than ten days, and insurance costs directly double. These costs ultimately show up in oil prices, in consumer prices, and in the life bills of every ordinary person.

Third: Why did the yen become the worst one?

The yen broke below 163, hitting a new 40-year low.

Do you know when the yen was at this level last time? 1986. That year, right after the Plaza Accord was signed, Japan was being pressured by the United States to appreciate the yen. Forty years later, the yen returned to the starting point—but this time it wasn’t forced appreciation; it was forced depreciation.

The yen’s collapse has three layers of reasons, and each layer is tied to geopolitics.

First layer: the US-Japan interest rate differential. Japan’s central bank just raised rates in June to 1%, the highest level in 31 years. But the Fed’s rate is still above 4%. Money flows from Japan to the US—if the yen doesn’t fall, what would it do?

Second layer: the oil price shock. Japan relies on imports for nearly all its energy. A surge in oil prices directly raises import costs, worsens the trade balance, and naturally puts pressure on the yen. But the root of the oil price surge isn’t supply and demand—it’s the Strait of Hormuz.

Third layer: policy failure. From April to May this year, Japan’s Ministry of Finance deployed a record 11.73 trillion yen to intervene in the market, but the effect only lasted a few weeks. The market has become completely immune to verbal warnings—you say your piece, and I keep selling.

The intersection of these three forces is geopolitics. The US fights in the Middle East; Japan pays the bill in Asia. The Fed keeps rates high; the Bank of Japan is forced to raise rates but doesn’t dare to go too hard. If it raises too much, Japan’s already fragile economy can’t take it. If it doesn’t, the yen keeps falling into worthlessness. The Japanese government is trapped in the middle—no matter how it chooses, it’s wrong. This is the cost of following the US as an ally—you have obligations, but no say.

You could say that this “synchronized asset rally” is, with every note, the sound of geopolitical gunfire behind it.

Gold is rising because Hormuz is being locked;
Oil is rising because two major energy chokepoints are under pressure at the same time;
The dollar is rising because the US is frantically projecting presence in the Middle East;
The yen is falling because Japan is bleeding on behalf of this conflict.

The essence of this “big concert” is that the US is fighting a consuming war it can’t win at the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran locks the world’s energy chokepoints at both straits—so Japan ends up paying for someone else’s war.