US stock market overall pattern (Nasdaq is a direct barometer for ETH)

Current state of major indices

1. Nasdaq (highly correlated with ETH)
Close: 24,975, down 0.64% on the day, three consecutive days of close-lower, officially breaking below the 25,000 key support (a key level over the past three months)

- Structure: The daily chart has already fallen below all moving averages, entering a downward channel; capital has continued to flow out of AI tech stocks, with chips and software sectors leading the declines
- Support: First support at 24,600; if it breaks, it will go straight to 23,000; resistance at 25,200
- Trend characterization: Medium-term bearish; only a Federal Reserve rate-cut signal can reverse it

2. S&P 500: Slight gain of 0.05%; value stocks prop up the market; price swings are highly divergent, with growth stocks weakening
3. Dow Jones: Slight rise; traditional industrial and energy sectors are stronger, completely decoupled from the tech theme

II. Core driver: U.S. Treasury yields (the global master switch)

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 4.71%, an in-year high, as liquidity continues to tighten:

- 4.8% is a strong resistance; if it keeps moving up, the Nasdaq will accelerate lower, and ETH will weaken in sync
- Reason for the rise: U.S. employment data is relatively strong + Middle East drives up oil prices; the market has priced in a higher probability of September rate hikes to 82%
- Conclusion: As long as yields stay high, tech assets are unlikely to see a sustained rebound

Capital style shift

Capital is rotating out of AI growth stocks and into energy, utilities, and traditional blue chips; tech sectors are bleeding, which is the fundamental reason ETH has been relatively weak lately.
Energy sectors are rising continuously due to geopolitical conflict, while tech remains under pressure; this style shift will not change in the short term.

Staged trend outlook

1. Weekend (7.26–7.27 daytime)

Nasdaq ranges narrowly, with the center of gravity slowly drifting down; ETH follows the range-bound but weaker action—only do short setups on rebounds.

2. Early Monday 2:00 AM (Federal Reserve rate decision: decisive turning point)

1. Slightly hawkish (most likely): Keep room for further rate hikes; Nasdaq breaks down and falls; ETH breaks through 1,820, targeting 1,750–1,730
2. Neutral: Choppy trading back and forth in the 1,820–1,914 range
3. Slightly dovish (low probability): Clearly rate cuts by year-end; Nasdaq rebounds and holds above 25,200; ETH pumps to above 1,960

3. After the rate decision: pacing

- Hawkish tone: The entire month of August will be weak overall; non-farm data will continue to weigh on the market
- Dovish tone: A round of repair and rebound, but the structure of a big bear market will not be reversed

Geopolitics layering rule

U.S.-Iran negotiation easing → oil prices fall → lower inflation pressure (indirectly positive for equities), but in the short term risk-averse funds leave the market, so crypto prices first retrace;
If the conflict escalates again: oil prices jump, inflation concerns intensify, the Federal Reserve turns more hawkish; equities fall and crypto prices see short-term impulse upside (the move lasts only one or two days).

Strict trading discipline

If Nasdaq holds above 25,200, the ETH long trend begins; if Nasdaq breaks below 24,600, short across the board.
Before the rate decision lands, all rebounds are only for shorts; low-level long positions are only short-term.