# 美联储

US CPI comes in below expectations, Bitcoin rebounds to $64,000, and the market re-prices the rate-cut window

US June CPI year-over-year fell to 3.5%, the lowest level since April 2020, with the data coming in below market expectations. On the back of cooling inflation, rate-cut expectations for the Federal Reserve heated up again; Bitcoin saw a short-term rebound and broke above the $64,000 level.

With inflation data continuing to trend downward, it gives the Fed more room for subsequent rate cuts. The market’s current focus has shifted from “whether to cut rates” to “when to cut and how

A single remark from Federal Reserve Governor Waller, and the market immediately “knelt.”
“If core inflation remains persistently high, we may need to raise interest rates.”
“The probability of a rate hike rises from 35% to 45%. BTC drops 3% and breaks below 62,000; $718 million in leveraged positions evaporates in an instant—86.7% of it are long positions.”
“Meanwhile, the US and Iran are trading missile strikes over the Strait of Hormuz. Asian stock markets lose $950 billion in a single night. South Korea’s KOSPI hits a circuit breaker and falls 9%. Retail investors are buying the dip, while

🔥Small non-farm ADP disappoints, but Waller goes silent! Did you guess tonight's script?
U.S. June ADP employment figure came in at only 98k, versus expectations of 118k and a previous 122k. As soon as the data was released, Bitcoin surged, and the bulls instantly perked up!
So what happened? Tonight, Waller said: "No forward guidance will be provided." Tight-lipped as a steel barrel. Market expecting new signals? None. Where's the hawkish stance? Where's the storm? All thunder, no rain.
👉Looking at $BTC around 58,647, Bollinger Middle Band at 58,497, Upper Band at 58,721. Short-term resist

Title: PCE Skyrocketed to 4.1%, but BTC Pulled Back Above $60K—Can This Bounce Be Trusted?
Folks, there are two major events today.
First, the PCE data is out. 4.1%.
This is the Federal Reserve's most closely watched inflation indicator, hitting its highest level in nearly three years. CPI is 4.2%, PPI is 5.2%, and now PCE has also reached 4.1%. With three consecutive high inflation readings appearing simultaneously, it's hard for the Fed to pretend not to see it.
Second, BTC has rebounded from around $58,000 to above $60k.
The Fear and Greed Index is at 15, still extreme fear. But the price i

Iran once again distrusts the United States, and the negative news has arrived!
$ETH Can it still hold at 1700?
——————
Just said a ceasefire was coming, and Iran turned around to say “Distrusts the US, preparing for possible war.”
Negotiations are still ongoing, but the preparation for war hasn't stopped. While claiming to continue negotiations, they are already making other arrangements. Israel and Hezbollah just stopped fighting, and Iran jumps out saying “Lebanon’s ceasefire is our red line.”
All the good news is now bad news. The US-Iran agreement is signed, Lebanon has a ceasefire, oil p