Crypto_Xincheng

May 24 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
News:
Yesterday, BTC briefly retreated to around 74,000 before quickly rebounding, partly attributed to Trump announcing Middle East peace agreements (including Iran-related agreements and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz), which eased geopolitical risks and boosted risk assets🚀
Macro background: Persistent inflation pressure, weakening bond markets, BTC is seen as a hedge asset. Analysts point out that BTC has ended its longest historical period of underperformance compared to the S&P 500 (142 days), and may enter a new phase of relative streng

May 22 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
News:
Yesterday was relatively calm, mainly influenced by macro factors
No significant sudden positive/negative news. The market focuses on macro factors such as Federal Reserve policies, yields, and inflation data. Recent reports mention SpaceX holding a large amount of Bitcoin, Iran-related geopolitical topics involving crypto payments, but these did not trigger notable volatility.
In terms of regulation, progress on bills like the Clarity Act is a long-term positive, but it did not directly drive prices in the short term.
Summary: The news sentimen

Just announced U.S. initial jobless claims
**Latest:** 209,000 (209,000 people)
**Previous:** 212,000 (downward revised)
**Forecast:** 210,000
**Result:** Better than forecast by 10,000, while lower than the previous figure by 30,000
The lower the number → employment is more stable, and economic resilience is stronger
The higher the number → a wave of layoffs may occur, signaling economic slowdown
This time, 209,000 is at a relatively low level historically (the normal range after the pandemic is roughly between 180,000 and 250,000). Also, for several consecutive weeks it has remained

May 21 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
News:
Macro and geopolitical factors: Stalemate in US-Iran peace talks + global bond sell-off, leading to pressure on risk assets, with investors temporarily fleeing high-growth assets. The Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations have shifted (probability of rate hikes increasing), combined with macro uncertainties, suppressing risk appetite.
Regulation/Policy: After positive developments like the CLARITY Act, a "sell on news" phenomenon appeared, with short-term gains being realized and profits taken. The overall institutional era is still progr

Daily Learning 👀 — Fear & Greed Index
Warren Buffett said: When others are fearful, we are greedy; when others are greedy, we are fearful 🤌
Current index: 28 (Fear zone)
The pointer on the dashboard points to 28, clearly in the "Fear" range (usually 0-25 for extreme fear, 25-50 for fear), which means the overall market sentiment is leaning towards panic, caution, and selling pressure, with investors generally feeling uneasy.
Below is the trend chart:
Gray line represents Bitcoin price
Green line represents the Fear & Greed Index
The green area (low fear) corresponds to price lows, the pink a

May 20 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
News Sentiment:
Geopolitical and macro risks: Iran-related tensions pushed oil prices higher, triggering an overall sell-off in risk assets. Bitcoin briefly rebounded from the weekend low near $76,500 to $77,000, but the recovery remains fragile.
Market Sentiment: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 39 (fear zone). Investors are concerned about inflation, Federal Reserve policies, and leveraged liquidations. From the weekend through May 19, more than $600 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated.
Regulatory developments such as the CLARIT

Daily Learning 👀 — $BTC Exchange Wallet Balance
Green Area
Displays the total amount of Bitcoin held in exchange hot wallets.
Starting from approximately 3.25 million BTC around May 2024, the overall downward trend continues, reaching about 2.45 million BTC by April 2026 (a decrease of about 25%).
Reference value for Bitcoin investment:
1. Core Signal: Decreasing exchange balance = Bullish signal
The more BTC in exchanges, the greater the potential selling pressure. When the balance continues to decline, it indicates that a large amount of Bitcoin is being withdrawn from exchanges to

May 19 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
News:
The main catalyst yesterday was Trump warning Iran on social media that "the clock is ticking, and quick action is necessary, or there will be nothing left," which heightened Middle East geopolitical tensions, leading to rising oil prices and a general retreat in risk assets. Bitcoin therefore fell about 2-3%, hitting a two-week low (around $76,000), triggering a market-wide liquidation.
Other factors include progress on the CLARITY Act regarding regulation (splitting SEC/CFTC oversight), but in the short term, geopolitical risks overshadowed it

May 18th $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
News:
Over the weekend, Bitcoin lacked significant positive catalysts, and market focus was on macro factors and geopolitical risks:
Recently, there has been a notable outflow from the US spot Bitcoin ETF (such as a $635 million outflow on May 13th, the largest this year), indicating profit-taking by institutions or increased risk aversion.
High US inflation data (CPI/PPI), uncertainty about the new Federal Reserve Chair, and rising bond yields limit the upside of risk assets. The stock market hit new highs, but Bitcoin did not follow, showing capit

Daily Learning 👀 — Bitcoin - MVRV Z-Score 🤌
The MVRV Z-Score is a classic on-chain valuation indicator for Bitcoin, used to measure the deviation of the current market price from the actual cost basis of holders, and through statistical normalization, to identify extreme overbought or oversold regions.
The green line (MVRV Score) spikes significantly at the peaks of previous bull markets (such as 2013, 2017, 2021) (often >5-10), followed by sharp price corrections.
The yellow line (BTC price) is highly correlated with the green line, especially in the late stages of a bull market when the gr

May 17 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
News:
U.S. inflation data (PPI/CPI) higher than expected, pushing up U.S. bond yields, putting pressure on risk assets. The stock market (such as the S&P 500) declined, combined with other factors, causing BTC to fall below $80,000 around May 15, triggering a large number of long liquidations (about $581 million, BTC dominant).
The CLARITY Act advancing in the Senate is a positive development, but it did not immediately boost prices. The strategy plans to buy back debt, possibly financed by selling BTC, increasing potential supply pressure.
The Fear &

Daily Learning 👁 — Put-Call Ratio
It is a classic on-chain indicator of $BTC , mainly used to assess the market cycle position from the perspective of miner profitability.
1. Indicator definition and calculation method
Put-Call Ratio = Daily Bitcoin issuance value ÷ 365-day moving average of daily issuance value
- Daily issuance value: The BTC mined that day (block reward + some transaction fees) multiplied by the current BTC price, representing miners' main income for the day.
- 365-day moving average: Represents the average income level of miners over the past year.
Simply put, this ind

Daily Learning 🤠🤑 — Two-Year MA Multiplier Indicator
This tool is essentially a long-term valuation + a reference for buy/sell timing, designed based on Bitcoin’s 4-year halving cycle:
1. Below the green line = Extremely undervalued (bottom-fishing buy zone)
- Historically, when BTC’s price falls below or is close to the two-year moving average, it is almost always the bottom of a bear market
- Examples: Near the lows in 2011-2012, 2015, 2018-2019, 2022-2023
- Buying in these zones and holding long-term can usually achieve extremely high returns
2. Above the red line = Overvalued /

May 15 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
News:
On May 14th, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee advanced the review and voting of the CLARITY Act (Cryptocurrency Regulatory Clarity Act), which is seen as an important step for the U.S. to incorporate cryptocurrencies into the mainstream regulatory framework, directly boosting market optimism. Bitcoin thus quickly surged to $82,000, and related stocks also strengthened.
In addition, the market is paying attention to Trump's visit to China (May 14-15) and macro geopolitical factors, but the progress of the CLARITY Act was the most direct positive

Just after the meeting, approval was granted for 10 Chinese companies—including Alibaba—to purchase NVIDIA’s H200 chips (with no deliveries made yet) 🚀
But this is not a full lifting of restrictions; it is a limited, controlled commercial loosening. Although the H200 is NVIDIA’s second-tier high-performance AI chip, the core logic of the U.S.’s 🇺🇸 chip export controls to China since 2022—preventing cutting-edge technology from helping military AI—has not changed. This license comes with clear limits and requires case-by-case review, showing that the U.S. is leaving some commercial room with

👀Daily Learning — Market Cap Share
Left Y-axis (USD): Shows Bitcoin Price (BTC Price), range 0 ~ $140,000
Right Y-axis (Percentage): Shows the market cap share of various tiers of cryptocurrencies (percentage of total crypto market cap), range approximately 13% ~ 31%
1. Bitcoin Price (orange-yellow line):
① Slowly rising from the end of 2023 to early 2024.
② A clear bull market appears from late 2024 to mid-2025, with the price rapidly climbing from over $60k to above $120k.
③ After peaking between August and November 2025, it pulls back, currently oscillating and rebounding in the $70,000–$8

May 14 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
News:
The key event yesterday was the U.S. PPI data far exceeding expectations (annual rate about 5.2%-6%, expected only 4.3%), triggering market concerns that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, directly suppressing risk assets, with Bitcoin weakening in tandem with U.S. stocks and tech stocks.
Trump - Summit (Beijing talks) involved tariffs, rare earths, Middle East issues, market expects potential positive news for risk assets, but short-term expectations were not met.
CB CEO positive statement on the Senate crypto bill approaching a

👀The ETH/BTC exchange rate has hit a new low again
First, let’s understand what it represents❓
ETH/BTC is the price ratio of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin—i.e., 1 ETH ≈ how many BTC
ETH/BTC rising💹 → Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin (ETH has a larger upside, or a smaller downside). If Ethereum is stronger than Bitcoin, it means market funds are continuously flowing from BTC to ETH, and not the other way around
ETH/BTC falling📉 → Ethereum underperforms Bitcoin (ETH has a smaller upside, or a larger downside). If Ethereum is weaker than Bitcoin, it means Bitcoin dominates the market, and ETH is