Trump openly supports cryptocurrencies.

If this had happened two years ago, who would believe it.

Someone who once publicly called Bitcoin a "scam" now directly endorses the crypto industry for votes, promising to relax regulations. Political winds are shifting faster than a needle, crypto has become a key issue for swing state voters, even Elon Musk has liked posts about it.

My first reaction was that the market would definitely celebrate wildly.

But after calming down, I realized Trump’s support has never been given for free; he has big backers and policy deals behind him. If the crypto industry wants to use legalization as a bargaining chip, it must cater to the appetite of this political beast.

Short-term emotions are running high, but will long-term rules be tied to the rollercoaster of "who gets in office, who loosens regulations"?

Earlier, I thought that when such news came out, $BTC would surge, but on-chain I didn’t see large inflows; instead, funding rates were tightening. Some in the market are betting on political dividends, but others are waiting for the real implementation day.

I don’t chase these emotional trends.

Political cards are always a double-edged sword. Loosening regulations is good, but who benefits, and how much, is the real question.

If long positions rush in now, and the election results reverse, the liquidation zone could bury people until tomorrow.

Don’t get too caught up in the positions.

This time, I’ll just review and reflect, not pretend to be a teacher.

Looking at the on-chain prediction market, it just went through a legal crackdown—A Michigan judge ruled that sports prediction markets are not under CFTC jurisdiction; Polymarket’s injunction was dismissed; on the same day, Kentucky sued Kalshi and Polymarket;

CME Chairman Duffy directly announced plans to sue the CFTC, opposing the approval of Kalshi’s Bitcoin perpetual contracts. These three events happened within two days, effectively giving prediction markets and perpetual contracts a triple blow.

For crypto funds, this regulatory game will make more institutional investors temporarily cautious, liquidity will be tight in the short term, and altcoins and contract liquidation zones will become more crowded.

Do you think Trump really will bring a true spring for crypto if he gets in, or is it just another political show?
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