Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model Raises US Q2 2026 Growth Estimate to 1.4%

The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model estimated US second-quarter 2026 economic growth at 1.4% on an annualized quarterly basis on May 7 local time, according to Yonhap Infomax. The revision reflects the incorporation of latest economic indicators into the real-time GDP tracking system. The 1.4% figure represents a 0.2 percentage point increase from the May 1 estimate of 1.2%, which had marked the lowest projection since the model began tracking second-quarter growth on April 30 at 3.7%.

Atlanta Fed Revises Q2 Growth Estimate Upward to 1.4%

The Atlanta Federal Reserve updated its GDPNow model on May 7 local time, raising the second-quarter 2026 US economic growth estimate to 1.4% from 1.2% on May 1. The 0.2 percentage point upward revision came after the model incorporated the latest economic data releases. The May 1 estimate of 1.2% had been the lowest since the Atlanta Fed began tracking second-quarter growth on April 30, when the initial projection stood at 3.7%.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 growth estimate trend chart. Source: Atlanta Fed website.

Investment and Trade Components Show Mixed Revisions

The Atlanta Fed explained that real private investment growth was revised downward from 6.5% to 6.0% based on the latest economic indicators. Net exports' contribution to growth improved from negative 1.62 percentage points to negative 1.30 percentage points. Second-quarter imports were estimated to surge 16.4% on an annualized basis, down from the previous estimate of 17.9%.

Blue Chip Consensus Forecasts Range Between 1% and 3%

The Blue Chip Consensus, which compiles forecasts from private sector experts, shows second-quarter growth projections distributed between 1% and 3%. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model provides real-time GDP growth estimates by incorporating newly released economic data as it becomes available throughout the quarter.

FAQ

What did the Atlanta Fed estimate for US Q2 2026 GDP growth on May 7?

The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model estimated US second-quarter 2026 economic growth at 1.4% on an annualized quarterly basis on May 7 local time, representing a 0.2 percentage point increase from the May 1 estimate of 1.2%.

How did the components of the GDP estimate change in the latest revision?

Real private investment growth was revised down from 6.5% to 6.0%, while net exports' contribution to growth improved from negative 1.62 percentage points to negative 1.30 percentage points. Second-quarter imports were estimated to surge 16.4% on an annualized basis, down from the previous 17.9% estimate.

What is the range of Q2 growth forecasts from private sector analysts?

The Blue Chip Consensus, which collects forecasts from private sector experts, shows second-quarter 2026 growth projections distributed between 1% and 3%.