Bank of America Forecasts DRAM ASP to Jump 21% in Q3 2026, Exceeding Market Consensus

According to Bank of America's latest supply chain survey, global DRAM average selling price (ASP) is projected to surge 21% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2026, significantly outpacing TrendForce's consensus estimate of 8% to 13%. The bank's research team identified five key drivers including stronger-than-expected server DRAM demand, broad-based spot market recovery, product mix upgrading toward higher-priced HBM4, weakening long-term contract protections, and emergency orders from end-device makers.

Spot market data reinforces the outlook: 16Gb DDR5 currently trades at $49.20 and 16Gb DDR4 at $80.10 per unit, both near record highs. DRAM spot prices have advanced for eight consecutive weeks, with 512Gb NAND wafers also showing price recovery signals, suggesting Q3 contract prices will track toward the 20% quarter-over-quarter gain range.