Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, forecasts Bitcoin could fall to $40,000 and reach its macro bottom around October 2026. The analyst bases his prediction on historical 4-year cycle patterns and macroeconomic indicators, noting that past cycles show Bitcoin finding its bottom approximately a year after reaching its peak. Cowen distinguishes the current market cycle from previous bull markets in 2017 and 2021, stating this cycle peaked due to investor apathy rather than enthusiasm, which prevented the anticipated altcoin rally. The analysis comes as Bitcoin experiences a downward trend influenced by global business cycles and continued strengthening of the US Dollar Index.
Cowen Compares Current Cycle to 2019 Market Structure
Cowen highlighted a crucial difference between the current market cycle and the bull markets of 2017 and 2021. He observed that in past peaks, small investors acted with excessive enthusiasm, triggering massive altcoin seasons, but this time the situation differs.
"This cycle was a period where Bitcoin peaked due to apathy rather than enthusiasm. Individual investor interest in crypto was significantly lower compared to previous years. Because the peak came from apathy, the anticipated major altcoin rally and currency rotation did not materialize," Cowen stated.
The analyst argued that this pattern most closely resembles the market structure of 2019, with money continuing to be dominated by Bitcoin rather than altcoins. Cowen's analysis focuses on Bitcoin's traditional 4-year cycles, noting that historical patterns show Bitcoin finding its macro bottom approximately a year after reaching its peak.
Analyst Identifies $40,000 as Key Support Level
Cowen identifies the $40,000 region as the potential bottom for Bitcoin based on on-chain and mathematical indicators. The analyst points to this region where critical metrics like Realized Price and Balanced Price converge, indicating Bitcoin could find its cyclical bottom there.
According to Cowen, a roadmap towards the $40,000 mark is on the table for Bitcoin to experience a complete macro-level reset. The analyst predicts that if historical 4-year cycle patterns are followed, Bitcoin could reach its true market bottom in the last quarter of 2026, specifically around October-November.
US Dollar Strength Pressures Bitcoin Price
Cowen stated that Bitcoin price movement is directly linked to global business cycles and liquidity. He noted that the continued strengthening of the US Dollar Index (DXY) is putting significant pressure on risk assets.
The analyst added that this persistently strong dollar index could continue to pressure the market for some time and support a cyclical downtrend. Cowen concluded his analysis by recalling his quote: "Bears sound smart, but bulls win the money," noting that bearish scenarios always sound wiser, but long-term strategies always pay off. He argued that investors should focus on on-chain risk metrics and data rather than emotional decisions.
FAQ
What price level does Benjamin Cowen predict for Bitcoin's bottom?
Benjamin Cowen forecasts Bitcoin could fall to $40,000, identifying this region where critical metrics like Realized Price and Balanced Price converge as the potential cyclical bottom.
When does Cowen expect Bitcoin to reach its macro bottom?
Cowen predicts Bitcoin could reach its true market bottom around October-November 2026, based on historical 4-year cycle patterns that show Bitcoin finding its bottom approximately a year after reaching its peak.
How does the current Bitcoin cycle differ from 2017 and 2021?
Cowen states this cycle peaked due to investor apathy rather than enthusiasm, with individual investor interest in crypto significantly lower compared to previous years, which prevented the anticipated major altcoin rally and currency rotation that occurred in past cycles.
