Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani maintained their $150,000 year-end bitcoin target despite the cryptocurrency's 54% drawdown from its October 2025 peak near $125,000, according to a note to clients published Monday. Bitcoin retested recent lows around $60,000 before bouncing to roughly $63,000, with The Block's bitcoin price page showing BTC trading around $62,600 on July 6. The firm attributed the milder correction — shallower than the 75% to 90% drawdowns that closed previous cycles — to crypto market maturation, while cautioning that it remains unclear whether the downturn has fully concluded. The current drawdown has lasted three quarters from the cycle top, shorter than the 12 to 15 months historical corrections typically span. Bernstein framed the decline as less severe than sentiment suggests, noting that combined inflows from treasury companies and exchange-traded funds reached $10 billion in 2026 despite the price correction.
Bitcoin ETF Outflows Total $5.5 Billion Against $74 Billion Asset Base
Spot bitcoin ETFs shed $5.5 billion in 2026 against a $74 billion asset base, according to Bernstein's analysis. Combined inflows from treasury companies and exchange-traded funds reached $10 billion in 2026, down sharply from $60 billion in 2025. Treasury companies — with Strategy as the primary driver — accounted for the net positive flows, offsetting ETF redemptions. Chhugani's team argued that $5.5 billion of ETF outflows on a $74 billion base, paired with a roughly 50% price correction, made sentiment appear worse than the underlying flow data. The analysts wrote that in a market where liquidity concentrates in AI equities, a net positive inflow year for bitcoin appeared less alarming.
Strategy Acquires 175,000 BTC in 2026, Lifts Holdings to 847,363 BTC
Strategy acquired about 175,000 BTC for roughly $14 billion in 2026, lifting its holdings to 847,363 BTC, per company filings cited by Bernstein. The firm addressed concerns that Strategy could face forced selling pressure. STRC, Strategy's primary preferred perpetual offering, trades at $87.87 against a $100 face value, but the company holds enough balance sheet liquidity to cover cash dividends and interest for more than 17 months, according to the note. Strategy's debt liabilities sit at about 13% of its bitcoin collateral value, with the next principal payment of roughly $1 billion due by the third quarter of 2028. The $15 billion in preferred principal functions as perpetual long-term capital. Under its capital policy, Strategy signaled it could sell up to $1.25 billion in bitcoin to fund dividends and interest, replenish dollar reserves, and support buyback plans. Any reduction in reserve coverage below 12 months would require board authorization. Bernstein concluded that these mechanics make major forced supply from Strategy unlikely, positioning it as a net buyer in the market.
U.S. Bitcoin Miners Redirect Toward AI Data Centers
Strategy's accumulation offset selling from leading U.S. bitcoin miners, which are redirecting toward AI data centers, according to the note. Bernstein expects the largest U.S.-listed miners to abandon bitcoin mining entirely, with their hash rate share absorbed by international operators across Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and Latin America. Overall network hash rate fell about 11% year-to-date on average. U.S. miners' share of total network hashrate slipped more than 40 basis points over the past two quarters, while emerging-market miners picked up roughly 100 basis points.
Tokenized Real-World Assets Climb to $52 Billion
Bernstein pointed to continued regulatory momentum, with GENIUS Act rulemaking on stablecoins ongoing and crypto perpetual futures now rolling out in the U.S. through Kalshi and Coinbase. The firm put the odds of the Clarity Act passing in 2026 at roughly even, citing Polymarket. Tokenized real-world assets climbed to about $52 billion, a fresh high, according to the note. Bernstein called its $150,000 year-end target for bitcoin "ambitious" given the correction, while maintaining that the cycle will eventually turn. The firm stated it continues to watch bitcoin flows for "any signs of life."
FAQ
How does bitcoin's current drawdown compare to previous cycles?
Bitcoin's current bear market erased about 54% from its October 2025 peak near $125,000, shallower than the 75% to 90% drawdowns that closed previous cycles, according to Bernstein. The drawdown has lasted three quarters from the cycle top, shorter than the 12 to 15 months historical corrections typically span.
What is Strategy's current bitcoin position and financial structure?
Strategy acquired about 175,000 BTC for roughly $14 billion in 2026, lifting its holdings to 847,363 BTC, per company filings cited by Bernstein. The company's debt liabilities sit at about 13% of its bitcoin collateral value, with the next principal payment of roughly $1 billion due by the third quarter of 2028. Strategy holds enough balance sheet liquidity to cover cash dividends and interest for more than 17 months.
Why does Bernstein maintain a $150,000 year-end bitcoin target?
Bernstein called its $150,000 year-end target "ambitious" given the 54% correction but maintained the forecast, citing the milder drawdown compared to historical cycles and net positive inflows of $10 billion in 2026 from treasury companies and ETFs. The firm stated it continues to watch bitcoin flows for signs of market recovery.
