According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin retreated to around $64,300 in July, after rising nearly 11% from a June low of approximately $59,000, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields climbed to about 4.7%, the highest level in five years. Higher rates are tightening financial conditions and pressuring risk assets.
Adler identified four emerging market risks: volatility compressed 31% in July to the 8th percentile historically, signaling potential for sharper moves ahead; U.S. spot market demand remains weak with persistent discounts over the past two and a half months; stablecoin outflows from exchanges indicate insufficient buying liquidity; and investors continue realizing losses, exerting downward price pressure.