BTC falls 0.46% in 1 hour: the escalation of the Iran–U.S. conflict and expectations of Fed rate hikes converge to weigh on prices

Between 05:00 and 06:00 (UTC) on July 20, 2026, BTC saw a short-term pullback of 0.46%. The price range was 64,080.1 to 64,562.8 USDT, with an amplitude of 0.75%. Over the past 24 hours, BTC fell from a peak of around $65,106 to near $64,160, a drop of about 0.85%, and the overall move is a mild correction. Market attention has clearly increased, and the combination of geopolitical risk and tighter macro expectations has led to heightened volatility.

The main driver behind this unusual move is the continued escalation of the U.S.-Iran military conflict, which has spread risk-off sentiment. The United States carried out military strikes against Iran for the ninth consecutive night, expanding targets to infrastructure (roads, tunnels, railways, and ports). A U.S. service member was killed in Jordan, and the conflict has broadened across seven countries. At the same time, a former NATO commander warned that the Suez Canal could become the next target. Concerns about a full-scale war intensified, and funds flowed out of risk assets.

Second, rising expectations of Fed rate hikes have reinforced the pressure for BTC to pull back. Cleveland Fed Chair Hammack and several other officials have sent rate-hike signals, and the CME FedWatch tool shows an 82% probability of a rate hike in December. Brent crude oil has broken above $90 per barrel, further pushing up inflation expectations. Order Book data shows the buy-to-sell depth ratio is only 0.27, with sell-side orders clearly dominant. At $64,160, open orders totaling 0.3938 BTC account for 93.8% of the total volume in the top 5 tiers, meaning there is resistance to a short-term rebound. However, trading volume over the 4h period is only 165.46 BTC, which is relatively low, suggesting this leg lower was not driven by large-scale selling. From a technical perspective, both the 1h and 4h moving averages remain bullish; the daily chart is still consolidating in a range-bound pattern. This pullback may be a normal retracement within an uptrend.

Risks from current volatility remain. Key things to watch are whether the U.S.-Iran conflict escalates further, comments from Fed officials, and the trend in oil prices. Focus support levels at $64,180 and $63,500, with resistance at $64,870. If the geopolitical situation worsens or rate-hike expectations strengthen further, BTC may continue facing short-term pressure. It is advisable to monitor changes in trading volume and whether order-book depth recovers.