BTC jumps more than 1% in 15 minutes: a short-term rebound driven by expectations that the Fed will hold steady, alongside falling oil prices following the US-Iran ceasefire

From 13:30 to 13:45 (UTC) on July 27, 2026, BTC surged quickly within 15 minutes, reaching a return of +1.10%. The price rose from $64,943.5 to $65,681.7 USDT, with an amplitude of 1.14%. The current price is around $65,266.5. Over the past 24 hours, the increase is about 1.15%. After rebounding from a $64,521 low, it moved within a range between $65,744 highs; market attention has warmed slightly, but overall volatility remains limited.

The main driver behind this abnormal move is the temporary ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict, which triggered a sharp drop in oil prices. The US and Iran paused attack actions for the second consecutive day. Brent crude fell by more than 4% from above $100, directly easing market fears of energy-driven inflation. The decline in oil prices also reduces expectations that the Fed will be forced to hike rates. Combined with the market’s general expectation that the Fed’s July rate decision will remain unchanged, this has provided BTC with mild upward support.

In addition, gold broke above $4,110 per ounce to set a new stage high, and the correlation with safe-haven assets has offered sentiment support to BTC. Notably, the current 12-hour K-line rise/fall percentage is only -0.03%, and the filled amount is about 377.4 BTC, which is relatively low. Moreover, the order book depth is extremely thin (total buys and sells are less than 0.6 BTC). Although the buy-sell depth ratio is as high as 7.09, it is mainly because the total outstanding orders are very small. This suggests the current rise is a low-liquidity repair driven by a marginal improvement in macro risk sentiment, not a trend move driven by large-scale inflows. Miners’ Bitdeer selling all of its BTC holdings is a supply-side pressure signal, but the market interpretation is defensive cash management, and the impact appears limited.

Near-term volatility risk still needs to be watched. BTC is trading slightly above the middle of the $64,500–$66,000 range. Support to watch is $64,500–$64,800. Resistance to watch is $65,700–$66,000. Key items this week include the tone of the Fed’s rate decision statement, the persistence of the US-Iran ceasefire, and whether the filled amount can expand afterward. In a low-liquidity environment, even a small amount of capital can cause significant price swings, so it is recommended to monitor more market information to judge whether the move is sustainable.