BTC sharp drop of 0.98% in 15 minutes: $10 billion options expiration triggers market maker hedging sell pressure

From 12:30 to 12:45 UTC on June 26, 2026, BTC plunged 0.98% in 15 minutes, with the price dropping from 60,002.2 USDT to 58,973.2 USDT, a volatility of 1.72%. This period occurred early in the Asian trading session, at a critical time after the expiration of $10 billion in options on Deribit. Market sentiment was extremely panicked, with the Fear and Greed Index falling to 15.

The main driver of this abnormal move was the market makers' Delta hedging adjustment needs brought by the day's $10 billion options expiration. About 80% of the options were out-of-the-money, requiring market makers to quickly close or convert hedging positions after expiration. This concentrated operation created significant selling pressure in a short time. At the same time, the exercise of nearly 20% in-the-money options also brought short-term spot delivery demand, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.

Second, leverage liquidation pressure continued to release. The cumulative liquidation scale in the market on June 25-26 was nearly $1 billion, with long positions accounting for about 85%. Some leveraged traders triggered forced liquidation thresholds after a slight price drop, forming a negative feedback loop. Meanwhile, the persistent institutional capital outflows since June provided a background of continuous selling pressure — US spot BTC ETFs saw a record net outflow of $6.35 billion, and the Coinbase premium index remained negative, reflecting the dominance of institutional selling pressure. The Fed's June meeting maintained a hawkish stance, with the dot plot median raised to 3.8%, and tightening liquidity expectations further weakened support for risk assets like BTC.

Currently, BTC has broken below the 200-week moving average, with the $58,000-$60,000 range becoming key support. If this range is lost, it could trigger further liquidation, driving price down to the $55,000 options strike price range. Thin liquidity at the end of the quarter may amplify volatility. It is recommended to watch the pace of hedge unwinding after options expiration, ETF fund flows, and the battle at the $58,000 support level.