China memory giant CXMT (Changxin Memory Technologies) officially listed on the STAR Market on July 27. During the call auction phase, it opened at 49.5 Yuan, surging 471.59% from the issue price of 8.66 Yuan. Its market cap surpassed 3 trillion Yuan, overtaking Kweichow Moutai to become the largest A-share by market cap. On the same day, Nomura Securities initiated its first coverage, issuing a “Buy” rating and a 116 Yuan target price.
CXMT’s IPO Day-1 Performance: Surpassing Kweichow Moutai to Become the Largest A-share by Market Cap
Changxin Technology listed on the STAR Market on July 27. In the call auction, it quoted 49.5 Yuan, up 471.59% from the 8.66 Yuan issue price. Its market cap surpassed 3 trillion Yuan, overtaking Kweichow Moutai to become the largest A-share by market cap. That same day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index slipped 0.04%, and Changxin Technology’s steep rally stood in stark contrast to the broader market trend.
The IPO implied market cap for Changxin Technology was about 579.18 billion Yuan (about $85.4B USD), making it China’s second-largest IPO. The oversubscription ratio reached 212 times.
Nomura’s First Coverage Sets a 116 Yuan Target Price
Nomura Securities launched its first coverage on the same day Changxin Technology listed, giving a “Buy” rating and a 116 Yuan target price. Its valuation methodology was: 2028 expected earnings per share (EPS) of 5.8 Yuan multiplied by a 20x price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This valuation is twice Micron’s (Micron) and implies 13.4x upside versus the IPO issue price, translating to a market cap of about 7.76 trillion Yuan.
Northeast Securities cross-validated the valuation range using three approaches: market-share-based anchoring, profit-splitting P/E, and unit capacity. It set an implied valuation range of 3.2 trillion to 5.7 trillion Yuan, and specifically noted that in 2025, Changxin Technology’s profit attributable to non-controlling shareholders accounted for as much as 73.76% (far above Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron at under 1%). The valuation therefore needed to exclude the impact.
Polymarket’s Day-1 Market Cap Forecast: 84% Chance to Break $2 Trillion
According to data from the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, the probabilities for Changxin Technology’s closing market cap on its first trading day are as follows:
Break through 1 trillion Yuan: 100%
Break through 1.5 trillion Yuan: 96%
Break through 2 trillion Yuan: 84%
Break through 2.5 trillion Yuan: 62%
Break through 3 trillion Yuan: 42%
Break through 3.5 trillion Yuan: 27%
FAQ
What were the IPO opening-day gain and market cap for Changxin Technology (688825)?
Changxin Technology listed on the STAR Market on July 27, 2026. During the call auction, it quoted 49.5 Yuan, surging 471.59% from the 8.66 Yuan issue price. Its market cap surpassed 3 trillion Yuan, overtaking Kweichow Moutai to become the largest A-share by market cap. The IPO’s implied market cap was about 579.18 billion Yuan (about $85.4B USD), China’s second-largest IPO.
What target price and rating did Nomura Securities give for Changxin Technology?
Nomura Securities initiated its first coverage on the same day it listed, giving a “Buy” rating and a 116 Yuan target price. Based on calculating 2028 expected EPS of 5.8 Yuan multiplied by a 20x P/E ratio, it implies a market cap of about 7.76 trillion Yuan, offering 13.4x upside versus the IPO issue price.
How large is the short position of Changxin Technology held by the Hyperliquid whale?
According to disclosures from the on-chain monitoring account “Yu Jin,” the largest holding address on Hyperliquid opened a $17.26 million short position. The average open-short price was $6.4 (about 43 Yuan). It also placed close-position orders in the $2 to $4.5 range. Coinglass data shows that in the nearly last hour, the amount liquidated for the related contracts reached $2.36 million, ranking first across the entire web.
