US stocks have repeatedly hit new highs driven by the AI tech wave, with tech stocks surging sharply; Bitcoin hovered around $64,000 on July 7, down nearly 50% from its all-time high in October last year, sparking investor concerns over the "decoupling of stocks and crypto." Jim Ferraioli, Director of Digital Asset Research and Strategy at Charles Schwab, stated in a report that this divergence is a temporary phenomenon, and the current recovery phase is highly consistent with Bitcoin's historical four-year halving cycle.
Hashdex CIO: AI Fund Rotation Masks Structural Evolution in Crypto Markets
According to Hashdex's mid-year market outlook report, CIO Samir Kerbage stated that the recent weakness in crypto prices "reflects not a deterioration in crypto market fundamentals, but rather investors allocating capital to other hot themes." He pointed out that AI infrastructure concept stocks, the IPO boom, and macroeconomic positioning around Fed rate expectations are siphoning off significant capital that might otherwise flow into crypto markets.
Kerbage stated that this fund rotation masks the structural evolution occurring within crypto markets, including the comprehensive expansion of institutional-grade infrastructure covering banks, brokerages, and payment providers, as well as the continued clarification of the U.S. regulatory environment.
Kerbage stated: "The vast gap between market capitalization and on-chain activity has reached unprecedented levels," and he believes that the severe decoupling of coin prices from network fundamentals "will absolutely not persist indefinitely." The above represents Kerbage's personal views.
Stablecoin Transaction Volume Exceeds All of Last Year, RWA Grows 60%
According to data cited in the Hashdex report, underlying on-chain activity in the first half of this year showed the following growth trends:
Stablecoin transaction volume: The first half of this year has already surpassed the total for all of 2025.
Tokenized real-world assets (RWA): Growth has exceeded 60% since the beginning of this year.
Total transactions in the crypto ecosystem: Q2 total transactions in the crypto ecosystem hit an all-time high.
Institutional infrastructure: Institutional-grade infrastructure covering banks, brokerages, and payment providers is expanding comprehensively.
Regulatory environment: The U.S. regulatory environment continues to clarify, and if the CLARITY Act passes this summer, transparency is expected to increase further.
Charles Schwab: Bitcoin's Historical Four-Year Halving Cycle Pattern and Production Cost Estimates
Jim Ferraioli, Director of Digital Asset Research and Strategy at Charles Schwab, did not focus on capital flows, instead using Bitcoin's historical market cycle as an analytical framework. Ferraioli stated that although many investors had expected the influx of institutional capital and the approval of spot ETFs to break Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle pattern, the current prolonged recovery phase is highly consistent with market trends after previous halvings.
Ferraioli noted that historically, after Bitcoin hits a bear market bottom, it typically takes more than a year to rise above the production cost price of inefficient miners; he personally estimates that Bitcoin's current production cost is around $95,000, and the average retail investor's cost basis is around $80,000.
Ferraioli also stated that as Bitcoin matures and market volatility gradually narrows, the impact of each future cycle will diminish over time. The above are Ferraioli's personal views.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the difference between Hashdex's and Charles Schwab's interpretation of the "stock-crypto decoupling"?
According to the latest reports from the two institutions, Hashdex CIO Kerbage believes the cause is fund rotation into themes such as AI stocks, IPOs, and interest rate positioning, while crypto market fundamentals are actually improving; Charles Schwab's Ferraioli analyzes from the perspective of Bitcoin's historical four-year halving cycle, arguing that the current recovery phase is highly consistent with trends after previous halvings. Both reach the same conclusion (decoupling is a temporary phenomenon), but their analytical approaches are completely different.
What are Ferraioli's estimates for Bitcoin's production cost and retail investor holding cost?
According to Ferraioli's personal estimates in the Charles Schwab report, Bitcoin's current production cost is around $95,000, and the average retail investor's holding cost is around $80,000; he notes that when the price recovers to the cost range, some previously trapped investors may choose to sell to break even, creating new selling pressure. The above are personal estimates and do not constitute investment advice.
Do the current underlying data in the crypto market support an optimistic view?
According to data cited in the Hashdex report, stablecoin transaction volume in the first half of this year has already surpassed the total for all of 2025, tokenized real-world assets (RWA) have grown over 60% since the beginning of the year, and Q2 total transactions in the crypto ecosystem hit an all-time high; Kerbage stated, "The vast gap between market capitalization and on-chain activity has reached unprecedented levels." The above are data cited from the Hashdex report, subject to official statistical sources.
