CLARITY Act Misses July 4 Deadline; August 7 Becomes New Senate Target as Odds Fall to 48%

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act missed the July 4 signing target that White House advisers had hoped to meet. August 7, the Senate's final scheduled session day before its summer recess, is now the next critical deadline.

According to Polymarket, odds for the bill's passage in 2026 fell to 48%, down from 74% a month earlier. The CLARITY Act remains on the Senate Legislative Calendar but has not received a floor vote. It still requires a cloture motion and 60 votes to overcome the filibuster. Republicans hold 53 seats; Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul are expected to oppose the bill on policy grounds. Supporters likely need seven to nine Democratic votes to secure passage. Brian Gardner, chief Washington policy strategist at Stifel, warned that missing the August recess window could cause the bill's prospects to "deteriorate materially." If the Senate misses the August 7 deadline, crypto market structure legislation may slip into 2027.