Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) each rose roughly 3-4% on Wednesday after William Blair cut its 2026 and 2027 EBITDA estimates for Coinbase by 34% and reduced revenue forecasts by 12-13%, yet maintained an outperform rating. The investment bank said key risks are already priced in and both stocks carry strong upside exposure to a Bitcoin recovery. Coinbase has fallen nearly 30% this year, Circle about 20%, alongside a roughly 26% decline in Bitcoin.
William Blair Cuts Coinbase Revenue and EBITDA Forecasts
William Blair, a Chicago-based investment bank founded in 1935, cut 2026 revenue estimates for Coinbase by 12% and 2027 estimates by 13%, and reduced adjusted EBITDA projections by 34% in both years. Analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury said earnings are set to trough in the second half of 2026 before recovering in 2027. The firm expects Coinbase's total trading volume to fall roughly 44% this year to $669 billion before rebounding more than 32% in 2027.
The firm sees this cycle as structurally different from 2022, noting there are now spot Bitcoin ETFs, institutional flows have grown, and the regulatory environment has matured. William Blair highlighted Coinbase's Base layer-2 network as a potential major earnings driver, with retail derivatives and prediction markets rounding out a revenue base that extends well beyond spot trading—retail derivatives alone crossed $200 million annualized in the first quarter.
Piper Sandler Reduces Price Target to $155
Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley cut his price target to $155 from $170, keeping a neutral rating. He flagged prediction markets and perpetual futures as the defining story of Q2—the World Cup drove massive growth in prediction market activity—and warned of "significant investor attention on the perpetual future threat" heading into Q3. Circle debuted in a June 2025 NYSE IPO at $31 per share and has dropped about 20% since January.
John Bollinger Identifies Bitcoin Double-Bottom Pattern
John Bollinger, creator of the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, has been flagging a developing pattern on Bitcoin's daily chart since early July. On July 2, Bollinger posted his analysis on X, identifying a "W" double-bottom taking shape. He called the setup "perfectly fractal"—smaller versions of the same shape nest inside the larger structure, and the pattern is also visible on the weekly chart.
In a more recent post, Bollinger stated that if this "W" completes, he would see it as "a confirmation of a change in trend." Bollinger disclosed a long Bitcoin position through his investment vehicle earlier this year. A double-bottom is a reversal formation defined by two swing lows with a rebound in between; it turns bullish once price clears the resistance at the apex between the troughs.
Glassnode Reports Long-Term Holder Capitulation Peak
According to Glassnode's latest weekly analysis, long-term holder capitulation—the main source of selling pressure all year—set its cycle peak two weeks ago and has turned down. The metric that measures what long-term holders actually surrender each day, adjusted to exclude internal transfers, reached a peak and is now falling for the first time this cycle.
Glassnode documented a broad wave of accumulation across wallets of all sizes during the June lows. Bitcoin's inverse relationship with the dollar has deepened while its correlation with U.S. equities has loosened, and its sensitivity to good macro news has returned: Tuesday's soft inflation print moved Bitcoin more sharply than any major equity index. Derivative positions are unwinding, long-term sellers are thinning, and the fear premium in the options market is easing.
FAQ
Why did Coinbase stocks rise after William Blair cut earnings forecasts?
Coinbase and Circle stocks rose roughly 3-4% on Wednesday because William Blair said key risks are already priced in and both stocks carry strong upside exposure to a Bitcoin recovery, despite cutting 2026 and 2027 EBITDA estimates by 34% and revenue forecasts by 12-13%.
What is the "W" pattern John Bollinger identified on Bitcoin's chart?
John Bollinger identified a "W" double-bottom taking shape on Bitcoin's daily chart on July 2. He called the setup "perfectly fractal" and stated that if this pattern completes, he would see it as "a confirmation of a change in trend." A double-bottom is a reversal formation defined by two swing lows with a rebound in between.
