ETH short-term surge 0.68%: short squeeze and on-chain buying resonance drive rebound

During the period from 15:00 to 16:00 UTC on July 6, 2026, the price of ETH rose from 1,751.32 USDT to 1,766.65 USDT, achieving a +0.68% return within one hour, with an amplitude of 0.88%. Against the backdrop of a 6% overall decline in June, this short-term rebound marks a temporary halt in the market decline.

The main driving force behind this anomaly is the short squeeze effect in the derivatives market. Data shows that on July 3, 2026, 89.38% of ETH futures liquidations were short positions (approximately $140 million). When prices rebounded marginally, short holders were forced to close their positions and buy contracts, forming a positive feedback loop of 'price increase → short covering → further buying.' Such short squeezes are more easily amplified in a low-leverage, low-open-interest market environment.

On-chain data provides spot-level support for the above judgment. On July 6, 2026, multiple large transfers of over 13,000 ETH were made from a major exchange hot wallet, with a single transfer amount of approximately $23 million, typically representing buying activity by market makers or institutional clients. In addition, ETH spot ETFs began to see net inflows after months of net outflows, reflecting a marginal improvement in institutional investor sentiment.

In terms of risks, it should be noted that the current gains are a marginal rebound rather than a trend reversal. ETH futures open interest remains at historically high levels, and the divergence between spot price and open interest suggests the possibility of continued sharp fluctuations. In the short term, attention should be paid to the $1,750 support level and changes in funding rates. If the momentum of short covering is exhausted, prices may quickly decline.