Fed Rate Hike Odds Signal 80% Probability for September, ECB Leans Toward Wait-and-See on July 1

According to Jin10, federal funds futures declined further on July 1, pricing in an 80% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Fed Chair Wosh is scheduled to appear at a global central banks forum tonight.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank officials signaled a cautious stance on further tightening. With oil prices retreating, multiple ECB policymakers indicated the urgency for additional rate hikes has diminished significantly; some suggested waiting until September to reassess monetary policy adjustments. In Asia, Japan's manufacturing confidence rose to its highest level since 2018, supported by strong factory activity in June.