Ian Samson, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, predicts gold will resume its bull market in 2027 and plans to move from neutral back to overweight gold in investor portfolios. Between January and February, Fidelity downgraded its gold position from overweight to neutral, just before gold retreated from an all-time high near $5,600 per ounce. Despite gold enduring its worst quarterly performance in over a decade, Samson said the core trends that drove gold to record levels remain intact. The decline accelerated when the Iran war began a month after the initial retreat in late January. Samson attributes his continued conviction to the unchanged global macro environment, stating that unless governments return to orthodox fiscal policy and central banks genuinely address inflation, the bullish case for gold remains valid.
Fidelity Downgraded Gold Position Between January and February
Samson made the decision to downgrade Fidelity's gold position from overweight to neutral between January and February. "We have a plan to go overweight gold again," Samson said in a recent interview. "The question now is when to act." This adjustment was made just before gold's multi-year bull run was interrupted. Gold prices began retreating from a record high near $5,600 per ounce in late January, and the decline accelerated a month later when the Iran war began.
Samson Expects Gold Bull Market Resumption in 2027
Fidelity does not expect gold to resume its previous upward path immediately. "From a tactical perspective, there are as many headwinds as tailwinds right now," Samson said. "I expect gold prices to be slightly higher by the end of the year than they are now." Despite near-term challenges, Samson said Fidelity has not abandoned its conviction about gold's long-term trajectory. The firm expects gold will re-enter a bull market at some point in 2027. As long as the global macro environment does not undergo a fundamental shift, "the bullish case for gold will not be undermined," he said. "But I don't think that's the world we're currently living in."
Technical Support Near $4,000 and Bullish Signals at $4,300
From a technical perspective, Samson thinks gold prices could continue to find support near the $4,000 per ounce area in the near term. The precise timing and degree of gold's price recovery will depend on several key variables, including the future trajectory of oil prices, the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, and whether the gold market itself can rebuild and sustain upward momentum. Samson said the first moderately bullish signal would be the 50-day moving average crossing above a longer-term DMA, or gold prices climbing back above $4,300 per ounce. "That would mean some upside pressure is emerging," he said.
Central Bank Demand Supports Long-Term Gold Prices
Samson pointed to central bank demand as the most important structural force supporting gold prices over the medium and long term. "If you have these large, structural, strategic buyers, it's almost inevitable that the gold price will be pushed higher," he said. This structural demand remains a key pillar of Fidelity's bullish thesis despite the recent quarterly decline.
FAQ
When does Fidelity expect gold to resume its bull market?
Fidelity expects gold will re-enter a bull market at some point in 2027, according to Ian Samson, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International.
What price level does Samson see as a bullish signal for gold?
Samson said the first moderately bullish signal would be gold prices climbing back above $4,300 per ounce, or the 50-day moving average crossing above a longer-term DMA.
