Gavekal: Trump Pressure on Fed Rate Cuts Unlikely to Keep Inflation Above 2% Target

According to Gavekal Research, the scenario that was widely feared in 2025—where former President Trump would undermine Federal Reserve independence, force rate cuts, and push inflation above the Fed's 2% target—is now unlikely to occur. Recent developments over the past seven months have shifted this outlook, including the appointment of Kevin Walsh as Fed Chair and the reappointment of 11 out of 12 regional Federal Reserve presidents. In Walsh's first meeting earlier this month, the Fed reiterated its commitment to price stability, defying some market expectations that a new leadership might adopt a more dovish stance.
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