Global Oil Inventory Declines Leave Energy Markets Vulnerable; EDC Forecasts $96/Barrel Average in 2026

According to Canada's Export Development Corporation (EDC), global oil inventory declines have made energy markets increasingly vulnerable. On July 16, the EDC forecast average crude oil prices at $96 per barrel in 2026 and $84 per barrel in 2027.

EDC Chief Economist Stuart Bergman stated that oil storage facilities worldwide have become "marginal producers" in the energy market. While strategic reserves and pre-crisis inventory previously helped offset supply reductions, global stocks have now fallen below seasonal normal levels. Bergman noted that restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and achieving permanent conflict resolution could ease supply pressures, yet the oil market remains supply-constrained.