Jefferies Revises 2028 WFE Market to $252B, Up 66%, as Equipment Stocks Fall 20%-25%

According to Jefferies' latest semiconductor equipment report, the firm revises upward its global wafer fab equipment (WFE) market outlook, estimating the market to reach $152 billion in 2026, $200 billion in 2027, and $252 billion in 2028—a 66% growth rate from 2026 to 2028. If AI investments continue expanding, the market could exceed $300 billion by 2029. The projection exceeds market consensus expectations for 2028 by approximately $82 billion.

Semiconductor equipment stocks have retreated 20% to 25% in recent weeks as market expectations for 2028 WFE size declined to around $250 billion from roughly $300 billion previously. Jefferies attributes this revaluation as the market reprices to more reasonable valuations. The firm expects memory price increases—forecast at 40%-50% quarter-over-quarter in 2026 Q3 and 2027 annual growth of 40%-45%—to drive DRAM and advanced-node capacity expansion, supporting sustained equipment demand growth.