JPMorgan Raises S&P 500 Target to 7,800 in 2026 on AI Earnings Boom

According to JPMorgan, the bank raised its 2026 year-end S&P 500 target to 7,800 on June 24, up from its previous forecast of 7,600. The new target implies approximately 6% upside from the index's recent close near 7,365.46. JPMorgan lifted its 2026 S&P 500 earnings-per-share estimate to $350 and projected 2027 earnings at $390, citing artificial intelligence capital expenditure, stronger earnings revisions, and improved geopolitical conditions as key drivers.

The firm noted that hyperscaler AI infrastructure spending has nearly doubled and continues to support technology and semiconductor shares, which have gained 27% and remain among the strongest performers this year. However, JPMorgan warned of flash crash risk in speculative AI stocks, where valuations and positioning have moved faster than fundamentals. Prediction markets on Polymarket currently assign a 59% probability to the S&P 500 reaching 7,800.