Kalshi and Polymarket recorded combined trading volume of $44.8 billion in June, a 75% month-on-month increase from $25.6 billion in May, according to analysis by The Block. The 2026 FIFA World Cup drove the surge as traders placed bets on match outcomes, tournament winners, top scorers and other football-related markets. The sharp increase marks the strongest monthly expansion for the prediction market sector this year and demonstrates how sports are rapidly becoming a major growth engine alongside politics for event-based trading platforms.
World Cup Contracts Drive June Trading Surge
World Cup contracts accounted for much of June's growth as trading accelerated throughout the tournament, according to The Block's analysis. Kalshi generated the bulk of the activity, while Polymarket also recorded a significant increase in volume. The tournament became one of the largest sporting events ever for prediction markets, with traders placing bets on everything from individual match outcomes to the eventual World Cup champion.
Unlike traditional sportsbooks, prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell contracts that reflect the perceived probability of an event occurring. Prices fluctuate continuously based on supply and demand, enabling traders to enter and exit positions before markets resolve. Earlier in June, analysts estimated that the World Cup could generate billions of dollars in additional trading volume across prediction markets.
According to MetaMask, Polymarket's standalone World Cup winner market had already surpassed $3 billion in lifetime trading volume before the tournament reached its later stages. The expanded 48-team World Cup format created hundreds of tradable markets covering every stage of the tournament, significantly increasing opportunities for traders compared with previous editions.
Prediction Markets Attract Institutional Liquidity and Technology Partnerships
World Cup markets attracted institutional liquidity, tighter bid-ask spreads and higher participation than previous sporting events. While prediction markets gained widespread attention during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, sports are now becoming their largest source of activity.
Meta is exploring partnerships with Kalshi and Polymarket while developing the company's own prediction-market product, internally known as Arena. Bernstein previously projected that prediction markets could eventually exceed $1 trillion in annual trading volume, driven by expanding use cases beyond elections and financial events.
Prediction markets are becoming always-on marketplaces where global events—from central bank decisions to football matches—can be traded in real time. The June data show that while political events remain important, global sporting competitions are equally powerful drivers of demand.
FAQ
What was the combined trading volume for Kalshi and Polymarket in June?
Kalshi and Polymarket recorded combined trading volume of $44.8 billion in June, a 75% month-on-month increase from $25.6 billion in May, according to analysis by The Block.
Why did prediction market trading volume surge in June?
The 2026 FIFA World Cup drove the surge as traders placed bets on match outcomes, tournament winners, top scorers and other football-related markets across Kalshi and Polymarket.
How much trading volume did Polymarket's World Cup winner market generate?
According to MetaMask, Polymarket's standalone World Cup winner market surpassed $3 billion in lifetime trading volume before the tournament reached its later stages.
