Hana Securities researcher Kim Du-eon stated on the 21st that the recent KOSPI decline resulted from excessive capital concentration in semiconductor stocks and leverage investment withdrawals, rather than a semiconductor industry cycle peak. The report identified foreign investor profit-taking and leverage product liquidations as primary causes of the market correction. Kim emphasized that KOSPI recovery depends on US hyperscalers—including Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon—confirming continued AI investment through their financial results, as semiconductor companies have already demonstrated strong earnings.
Samsung Electronics and TSMC Report Strong Q2 Earnings
Samsung Electronics reported Q2 operating profit increased approximately 19 times year-over-year, while TSMC recorded a 77% profit increase in the same period. Both companies' stock prices declined following earnings announcements, as market focus shifted from confirmed results to future AI investment sustainability. Kim stated, "Semiconductor companies' profits have already been confirmed. What the market needs to verify now is orders from final customers—US hyperscalers."
Leverage ETFs Amplified KOSPI Decline Through Daily Rebalancing
Kim characterized single-stock leverage ETFs as amplifiers rather than initial causes of the decline. Leverage ETFs must adjust holdings daily to maintain 2x tracking of underlying asset returns. During market downturns, this rebalancing process created additional selling pressure on Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. The report noted that credit margin financing and leverage product liquidations followed the initial foreign investor profit-taking.
Hana Securities Projects Three KOSPI Recovery Scenarios
Hana Securities presented three scenarios for KOSPI recovery to previous highs. The crisis scenario, assuming the bull market has ended with patterns similar to past crises, estimates 1148 days for full recovery. The base scenario, reflecting the current uptrend's strong recovery capacity, projects 150 days. The optimistic scenario, treating the decline as temporary supply-demand adjustment within the bull market, estimates 32 days. Kim stated, "Technical rebounds can begin once supply-demand liquidation completes, but the force to recover previous highs comes from hyperscaler orders, not simple overselling."
US Big Tech Earnings to Serve as First Test for KOSPI Recovery
The report identified US Big Tech earnings announcements as the first test for KOSPI recovery. Markets will examine whether AI service revenues are growing, data center capital expenditure plans remain intact, and companies can maintain profitability and cash flow amid large-scale investments. Kim noted that if Big Tech maintains AI investment, rising memory prices could be reinterpreted as evidence of strong demand rather than cost burden. The report added that some AI companies reviewing hedge measures for long-term memory supply contracts represents financial risk management rather than demand slowdown signals.
FAQ
What caused the recent KOSPI decline according to Hana Securities?
Hana Securities researcher Kim Du-eon stated on the 21st that the decline resulted from foreign investor profit-taking and leverage investment withdrawals following excessive capital concentration in semiconductor stocks, rather than a semiconductor industry cycle peak.
What were Samsung Electronics and TSMC's Q2 earnings results?
Samsung Electronics reported Q2 operating profit increased approximately 19 times year-over-year, while TSMC recorded a 77% profit increase in the same period, according to the report.
How long will KOSPI recovery take according to Hana Securities scenarios?
Hana Securities presented three recovery scenarios: 1148 days in a crisis scenario similar to past downturns, 150 days in the base scenario reflecting current uptrend strength, and 32 days in an optimistic scenario treating the decline as temporary supply-demand adjustment.
