The Korean stock market is expected to continue volatility in the upcoming week amid verification of semiconductor peak-out concerns, according to NH Investment & Securities on July 12. Securities firms have lowered outlooks on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, yet the KOSPI's forward price-to-earnings ratio fell to 6.17x — below 7x for the first time since the global financial crisis when the index traded below 1,000. Analysts recommend split-purchase strategies utilizing volatility rather than panic selling, as the market's valuation has reached historical lows despite spreading peak theories.
KOSPI Forward PER Drops to 6.17x, Lowest Since Global Financial Crisis
NH Investment & Securities set the expected KOSPI range for the week at 6,900-7,900, representing up to approximately 5.67% upside potential from the previous week's closing price of 7,475.94. The KOSPI's forward price-to-earnings ratio fell to 6.17x, lower than the 7.12x recorded immediately after the US-Iran military confrontation. This marks the first time the PER has dropped below 7x since the global financial crisis when the KOSPI index traded below 1,000. Securities industry experts identify 7,000 as a key support level for the KOSPI, advising that a break below this level would constitute a short-term overshooting phase requiring split-purchase responses rather than panic selling.
US June CPI Release Scheduled for July 14
The market views the US June Consumer Price Index announcement scheduled for the 14th (local time) as a turning point. According to the Cleveland Federal Reserve's "Inflation Now" forecast, the June CPI increase rate is expected at 3.92%, down from the previous month's 4.2%. If inflation slows, concerns about Federal Reserve rate hikes may ease, potentially stabilizing bond yields and the dollar downward.
ASML, TSMC, Seagate Earnings Scheduled for July 15-16
The Q2 earnings season officially begins this week and is identified as a potential reversal momentum. Netherlands-based ASML's earnings are scheduled for the 15th, followed by Taiwan's TSMC and Seagate on the 16th. These companies' results and guidance revisions will provide indicators of the artificial intelligence semiconductor industry's direction. Experts diagnose that as the KOSPI underwent correction ahead of earnings season, undervaluation appeal has expanded across semiconductors and multiple sectors that were previously overvalued. However, supply exodus may intensify ahead of global big tech companies' (Google, Microsoft, Amazon) earnings announcements scheduled for the end of this month, making short-term volatility expansion unavoidable. For the market to achieve a trend reversal upward, indicators supporting earnings estimate upgrades and big tech capital expenditure expansion must be confirmed.
Kiwoom Securities Cuts Samsung Electronics Target to 390,000 Won
Semiconductor peak-out theory-driven stock price fluctuations began in earnest last week. After global investment bank Morgan Stanley presented a conservative view citing hyperscaler AI investment dependence and memory industry improvement speed approaching its peak, domestic securities firms followed suit. Kiwoom Securities lowered Samsung Electronics' target price from 430,000 won to 390,000 won, reflecting concerns about second-half earnings per share growth rate slowdown and intensifying competition with Chinese companies. BNK Investment & Securities maintained SK Hynix's target price at 1.85 million won — significantly below the July 10 closing price of 2.18 million won — citing slowing infrastructure investment competition among hyperscalers and reduced earnings momentum after year-end, effectively issuing a conservative opinion.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix Record High Volatility Last Week
Stock prices recorded high volatility last week. Samsung Electronics plunged 6.92% on July 7, the day of its record Q2 earnings announcement, fell another 6.25% the next day, then rebounded 2.52% on the 10th to close at 285,000 won. SK Hynix also saw profit-taking selling, falling 6.06% on the 7th and 5.68% on the 8th consecutively, rebounding 5.30% on the 9th, then declining 0.27% on the 10th to close at 2.18 million won.
FAQ
What is the KOSPI's current forward PER level?
The KOSPI's forward price-to-earnings ratio fell to 6.17x as of July 12, according to NH Investment & Securities. This represents the first time the PER has dropped below 7x since the global financial crisis when the KOSPI index traded below 1,000.
When are ASML, TSMC, and Seagate scheduled to announce Q2 earnings?
ASML's earnings are scheduled for the 15th, while TSMC and Seagate are scheduled to report on the 16th. These announcements will provide indicators of the artificial intelligence semiconductor industry's direction through their results and guidance.
How did Samsung Electronics' stock perform on its Q2 earnings announcement day?
Samsung Electronics fell 6.92% on July 7, the day it announced record Q2 earnings. The stock continued declining 6.25% the following day before rebounding 2.52% on the 10th to close at 285,000 won.
