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Memory Prices May Surge 40-50% in Q3 2026, Supply Shortage to Extend Through 2027: Jefferies

GateNews
Stocks
According to Jefferies' latest global technology report, memory prices may surge 40-50% in the third quarter of 2026 and a further 30-40% in the fourth quarter, significantly exceeding investor expectations of 15-20% growth. The report attributes the spike to cloud giants securing multi-year supply contracts and sustained AI server demand. Jefferies estimates global memory bit supply will grow only 7-8% in 2026 (excluding China), creating a shortfall of 150,000-200,000 wafers monthly. Supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist through 2027, with average selling prices (ASP) potentially rising 40-45% year-over-year. Relief is not anticipated until 2028, when wafer capacity increases 15-20% and AI demand growth slows, allowing ASP to decline 15-20%.
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