Oppenheimer on Thursday pushed back against speculation of a potential merger between Elon Musk's SpaceX and Tesla Inc, arguing that maintaining separate entities better supports Musk's artificial intelligence ambitions through diversified capital access. The firm stated that Musk's vision "is best served by diversified, flexible access to capital" and that "having two public currencies supports that strategy most effectively," as reported by Investing.com. The debate intensifies as SpaceX prepares to begin trading on Nasdaq on Friday following a $75 billion IPO priced at $135 per share, implying a $1.77 trillion valuation that would combine with Tesla's $1.25 trillion market capitalization for a total of approximately $3 trillion.
Oppenheimer Forecasts Expanded Supply Chain Synergies
Oppenheimer acknowledged that a combination remains "plausible" but does not expect a near-term merger. The firm anticipates that supply chain synergies between Tesla and SpaceX—particularly in energy storage, servers, and data infrastructure—will expand in the coming years ahead of any potential transaction.
Oppenheimer highlighted Tesla's stationary storage business as a key near-term beneficiary of the SpaceX IPO, according to the report. The firm believes Tesla's energy storage capabilities will play an important role in supporting SpaceX's power and computing needs for data centers. As a result, Oppenheimer raised its energy storage sales forecasts by 2% for the remainder of 2026 and by 3% for both 2027 and 2028.
On the vehicle side, Oppenheimer increased its sales forecasts by 4% across 2026-2028, citing elevated oil prices that improve the total cost of ownership for electric vehicles. The firm remains cautious on the timelines for full commercialization of autonomous driving and humanoid robots, pointing to FSD V15 as the next important milestone to watch.
Wedbush and Eisman Present Contrasting Merger Views
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has been one of the most bullish voices on a potential merger. Ives has repeatedly stated that he sees an 80% to 90% probability that Tesla and SpaceX will combine in 2027, after SpaceX completes its IPO. He has described such a merger as the "holy grail" for Musk, as it would allow him to better own and control the broader AI ecosystem. Ives has pointed to existing operational connections between the two companies, including the joint Terafab facility in Austin, as evidence that the groundwork for integration is already being laid.
Veteran investor Steven Eisman took a more skeptical view. Speaking on CNBC's Squawk Box earlier this week, Eisman said he wouldn't be surprised if Musk eventually uses SpaceX stock to acquire or merge with Tesla. However, he made it clear that he believes such a move would be highly unattractive for SpaceX shareholders. Eisman argued that combining the two companies would likely hurt the stronger SpaceX business, as Tesla operates in a highly competitive and capital-intensive EV market. "If I was a SpaceX shareholder, the last thing I'd want would be for him to buy Tesla," he said.
SpaceX IPO Details and Combined Valuation
SpaceX will start trading on the Nasdaq on Friday. The company priced the IPO at $135 per share to raise $75 billion, implying a $1.77 trillion valuation. Tesla has a market capitalization of $1.25 trillion, giving the two companies a combined valuation of about $3 trillion.
The speculation for a Tesla-SpaceX merger began when Musk merged his AI startup company xAI with SpaceX earlier this year. SpaceX's IPO announcement aggravated the speculation of Musk consolidating his different companies under one roof.
Tesla Stock Closes Up 5% on Thursday
TSLA stock closed up 5% on Thursday after closing in the red for two consecutive days. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around TSLA stock stayed within the bearish territory, while message volume stayed at normal levels.
FAQ
What did Oppenheimer say about a Tesla-SpaceX merger on Thursday?
Oppenheimer pushed back against merger speculation on Thursday, arguing that keeping the two companies separate better supports Elon Musk's artificial intelligence ambitions through diversified capital access. The firm stated that Musk's vision "is best served by diversified, flexible access to capital" and that "having two public currencies supports that strategy most effectively."
When will SpaceX begin trading and at what valuation?
SpaceX will start trading on the Nasdaq on Friday. The company priced its IPO at $135 per share to raise $75 billion, implying a $1.77 trillion valuation. Combined with Tesla's $1.25 trillion market capitalization, the two companies have a total valuation of approximately $3 trillion.
What is Wedbush analyst Dan Ives' view on a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger?
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has stated that he sees an 80% to 90% probability that Tesla and SpaceX will combine in 2027, after SpaceX completes its IPO. Ives has described such a merger as the "holy grail" for Musk, as it would allow him to better own and control the broader AI ecosystem.
