Pimco Maintains Fed Rate-Hold Forecast as Wilding Flags 0.3% PCE Monthly Gain as 'Hot' July 15

According to Pimco economist Tiffany Wilding's July 15 report, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rate freeze throughout 2026 as inflation moderates in the second half of the year. Wilding noted that current inflation environment differs from 2022, with labor market no longer a price pressure source and real rates significantly higher.

Waller's July 13 speech signaled potential tightening if inflation surprises to the upside, with Wilding interpreting a core PCE price index monthly gain of 0.3% as meeting the "hot" threshold. Wall Street economists estimate June core PCE rose approximately 0.2% month-over-month, down from May's 0.3% increase. The June PCE data is scheduled for release on July 30.