Polymarket Assigns 87% Probability Bitcoin Finishes 2026 Below $60K Amid Record ETF Outflows

BTC-3.48%
According to Polymarket, Bitcoin traders assigned an 87 percent probability the asset will finish 2026 below $60,000 as of mid-June 2026, with the platform's June contract priced at below $70,000 with 100 percent implied certainty. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.30 billion in net outflows during May 2026, the largest monthly exodus of the year, driven primarily by hedge fund basis-trade unwinds as elevated Treasury yields reduced arbitrage profitability. BlackRock increased its Bitcoin holdings to approximately 764,000 BTC by June 18, indicating continued institutional accumulation despite the broader category outflows.
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