Polymarket, Kalshi Report Massive Midterm Bets: Democrats at 86% to Win House Control

According to Polymarket and Kalshi data as of July 22, traders on prediction markets are pricing Democrats at 86% odds to win House control in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, with $9 million traded on that single market. On Polymarket, the Senate outlook favors Republicans at 56%, with $3 million in trading volume.

Kalshi's primary markets significantly outpace Polymarket's general election activity. The Kentucky 4th District Republican primary between Ed Gallrein and Thomas Massie leads all midterm markets at $22 million in volume, followed by the Texas Republican Senate primary at $18.4 million and the Texas Democratic Senate primary at $14.6 million.