Prediction markets recorded more than $50 billion in monthly trading volume for the first time in June, driven by betting activity surrounding the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to a Macquarie research note citing blockchain analytics firm Artemis data. The surge was led by Kalshi, which processed approximately $33 billion, while Polymarket accounted for most remaining activity across World Cup match and player performance markets. The June total represents the largest monthly volume ever recorded in the prediction market sector, highlighting how major sporting events are becoming a primary demand driver for platforms offering exchange-style event trading.
Kalshi and Polymarket Dominate June Trading Volume
Kalshi processed approximately $33 billion in trading volume during June, according to the Macquarie research note. Polymarket accounted for most of the remaining activity, with World Cup matches generating billions of dollars in wagers across outright winner, match result and player performance markets.
Before the tournament kicked off, Bernstein analysts described the expanded 48-team FIFA World Cup as a watershed moment for prediction markets, forecasting the tournament would generate more than $3 billion in incremental betting handle and increase consumer prediction market volumes by $5 billion to $10 billion. The investment bank argued that the World Cup's 104-match schedule would provide the largest catalyst the industry had ever experienced.
The record showed that prediction markets outperformed many traditional online sportsbooks during the tournament, reflecting growing consumer interest in exchange-style event trading. Unlike conventional betting platforms, prediction markets allow participants to continuously buy and sell contracts whose prices reflect the perceived probability of an event occurring. That structure enables traders to adjust positions in real time as new information emerges throughout a tournament.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup proved particularly well-suited to that model, with dozens of simultaneous markets covering match winners, tournament progression, Golden Boot contenders and national team performance.
Macquarie Analysts Expect Post-Tournament Activity Moderation
Macquarie analysts expect trading activity to moderate after the tournament, although they believe the World Cup has permanently expanded awareness of prediction markets among mainstream users, according to the research note.
Much of the recent surge was driven by the World Cup, a major sporting event that created 104 matches and weeks of continuous trading opportunities. The question now is whether platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket can convert those users into regular traders across other categories, including financial markets, politics, macroeconomics and entertainment.
The weeks following the World Cup represent an important test for the industry. If trading volumes remain elevated after the tournament concludes, it would strengthen the case that prediction markets have evolved into a year-round financial product rather than a business driven primarily by headline events.
FAQ
What trading volume did prediction markets reach in June?
Prediction markets recorded more than $50 billion in monthly trading volume in June, according to a Macquarie research note citing Artemis data. This represents the largest monthly total ever recorded in the sector.
How much volume did Kalshi process during June?
Kalshi processed approximately $33 billion in trading volume during June, according to the Macquarie research note. Polymarket accounted for most of the remaining activity.
What did Bernstein analysts forecast before the World Cup?
Bernstein analysts forecasted the tournament would generate more than $3 billion in incremental betting handle and increase consumer prediction market volumes by $5 billion to $10 billion. The investment bank described the expanded 48-team FIFA World Cup as a watershed moment for prediction markets.
