A survey of eight financial institutions projects South Korea's July exports will reach $97.83 billion, marking a 61.11% year-over-year increase and the second consecutive month exceeding $90 billion. Yonhap Infomax conducted the survey on the 29th, collecting customs-based export and import forecasts for July. Analysts attribute the continued export strength to semiconductor demand driven by artificial intelligence investment expansion and rising chip prices, despite fewer working days in July compared to the previous year. The forecast follows June's record-breaking $102.17 billion in exports, the first time South Korea surpassed $100 billion in monthly exports, with semiconductor shipments alone exceeding $40 billion for the first time.
Eight Institutions Forecast July Exports Between $95.7B and $100.6B
Yonhap Infomax surveyed eight domestic and international financial institutions regarding July export and import forecasts on a customs basis. Citibank Korea provided the highest export estimate at $100.64 billion, while Meritz Securities projected the lowest at $95.72 billion. The median forecast of $97.83 billion represents a 61.11% increase compared to the same month in the previous year.
Semiconductor Demand and AI Investment Drive Export Growth Despite Fewer Working Days
Analysts expect robust export performance centered on semiconductors despite reduced working days in July. Ahn Ki-tae, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, stated that "considering the continued rise in semiconductor prices and global token market expansion, the July export growth rate is estimated at 64.7% year-over-year." Park Sang-hyun, a researcher at iM Securities, noted that "despite fewer working days compared to July last year, the semiconductor export boom continues, so there will be no significant change in the domestic export trend." Park added that "although uncertainties such as oil price instability have increased, major countries' manufacturing economies are maintaining a solid trend, so the export boom is expected to continue for a considerable period."
Jeong Seong-tae, a researcher at Samsung Securities, assessed that "semiconductor-centered export growth continues and benefits from AI investment expansion are ongoing," adding that "automobile exports, which temporarily slowed in April and May, are also rebounding."
July 1-20 Export Data Shows $54.9B in Shipments and Record Semiconductor Sales
According to the Korea Customs Service, exports from July 1 to 20 reached $54.9 billion, a 52.3% increase compared to the same period last year. This represents the largest scale on record for the July 1-20 period. During the same period, working days totaled 14.5 days, one day fewer than last year, but average daily exports surged 62.9% year-over-year to $3.79 billion. Semiconductor exports reached $22.1 billion, recording the highest ever for the July 1-20 period.
![South Korea Export Forecast Chart]()
Chart showing South Korea's export trends and forecasts
July Import Forecast at $67.92B with Oil Price Movements as Key Variable
July imports are forecast at $67.92 billion, a 25.29% increase compared to the same month last year. The highest estimate was $71.18 billion from Meritz Securities, while the lowest was $63.97 billion from iM Securities. According to Korea Customs Service data, imports from July 1 to 20 reached $42.7 billion, a 20.0% increase year-over-year.
Lee Seung-hoon, a researcher at Meritz Securities, stated that "imports are expected to show a higher growth rate than the January 1-20 preliminary figures as they reflect oil price increases since mid-July." Lee continued that "semiconductors and computers are still the two pillars of export growth," and "wireless communication devices, petroleum products, energy storage systems, non-ferrous metals, cosmetics, and bio-health are maintaining double-digit growth, contributing to the spread of export recovery."
Trade Surplus Expected at $29.91B as Multiple Sectors Show Double-Digit Growth
The combined July trade surplus forecast from the eight institutions totals $29.91 billion. Choi Ji-wook, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, projected that "July customs exports will record $96.86 billion and customs imports $68.39 billion, with the trade surplus at $28.47 billion, slightly lower than June." Choi noted that "semiconductor export value has decreased somewhat from the May peak but remains at a high level, and exports of electrical, electronic, and ship products continue to show strength."
FAQ
What did the survey of South Korea's July exports reveal?
Yonhap Infomax surveyed eight financial institutions on the 29th, finding that July exports are forecast to reach $97.83 billion, representing a 61.11% year-over-year increase. This would mark the second consecutive month of exports exceeding $90 billion, with estimates ranging from $95.72 billion to $100.64 billion across the surveyed institutions.
Why are South Korea's exports continuing to grow despite fewer working days?
Analysts attribute the export growth to sustained semiconductor demand driven by artificial intelligence investment expansion and rising chip prices. According to preliminary customs data, semiconductor exports from July 1-20 reached $22.1 billion, the highest on record for that period, with average daily exports surging 62.9% year-over-year to $3.79 billion despite one fewer working day compared to the previous year.
How do July import forecasts compare to export projections?
July imports are forecast at $67.92 billion, a 25.29% year-over-year increase, resulting in an expected trade surplus of $29.91 billion. Analysts indicate that import growth reflects continued semiconductor-related purchases and recent oil price increases since mid-July, with preliminary July 1-20 import data showing $42.7 billion, up 20.0% from the same period last year.
