Musk’s SpaceX (code name SPCX) stock fell about 5.4% to $137.74 on July 14, down from a previous close of $145.30. The intraday low was $136.78, further approaching the $135 IPO offering price. Senior investor George Knober, who participated in founding Fidelity’s overseas fund, said in an interview that the essence of this IPO is “the largest-scale exit cash-out operation in history.”
SPCX stock closed at $137.74 on Monday, down about 39% from its listing high
According to reports, SpaceX (SPCX) closed at $137.74 on Monday, down about 5.4% from $145.30 on the previous trading day. The intraday low reached $136.78, just under $2 away from the $135 IPO offering price. The current share price has already fallen about 39% from the listing high of $220, and retail investors who entered only after the listing have generally been facing paper losses.
Knober: IPO price-to-sales ratio over 90x; fair value around $30
According to reports, senior investor George Knober said that when SpaceX priced its IPO at $135, its price-to-sales ratio had already exceeded 90x. In the early stage after listing, it temporarily climbed to about 140x, with the valuation severely detached from fundamentals. He described the IPO as having “very little float and buy-side demand with force,” calling it “a deliberately manufactured short squeeze,” and said its essence is “the largest-scale exit cash-out operation in history.”
Knober estimated SpaceX’s fair share price at about $30 per share. He emphasized that Starlink is SpaceX’s only business that can reliably generate profits, but it still isn’t enough to support the company’s overall market value, saying it is “the biggest-scale stock I’ve ever seen, with the most outrageous valuation.”
Release schedule staggered in tranches: about 20% after Q2 earnings; all unlocked on Dec. 8
According to reports, SpaceX’s unlock schedule is as follows:
After the Q2 earnings are released (late July to early August): about 20% of shares unlocked
August to October: released in tranches every 2 to 4 weeks, about 7% each time
After the Q3 earnings are released: triggers about 28% of shares to unlock
Dec. 8, 2026: all remaining shares fully unlocked
The 640 million shares held by Musk himself: locked until June 12, 2027
Knober noted that in the coming months, the key factor driving the stock price would not be operational fundamentals, but the change in float caused by the unlocks. However, selling in tranches would spread sell pressure over several months instead of a one-time “flood” style dump.
Bull camp: analysts’ highest target price is $401
According to reports, analysts who are optimistic about SPCX also have arguments: Wall Street analysts’ target price range is $115 to $401. Most institutions still recognize SpaceX’s monopoly position in aerospace infrastructure. Starlink is also indeed a real profit-generating business, not an illusion. The unlock wave is not a single cliff-like crash day; it is staggered and released in multiple tranches, and sell pressure is expected to be dispersed over several months.
FAQs
What was SPCX’s closing price on Monday, and how far is it from the IPO offering price?
According to reports, SPCX closed on Monday at $137.74, with an intraday low of $136.78; the IPO offering price was $135. At present, the stock price is down about 39% from the post-listing high of $220.
What valuation judgment did senior investor Knober make for SpaceX?
According to reports, Knober said that at the time of the IPO, SpaceX’s price-to-sales ratio was already over 90x. He estimated a reasonable share price of about $30 per share, stating that Starlink is the only stable profit-generating business but insufficient to support the company’s overall market value, describing it as “the stock with such massive scale and the most outrageous valuation.”
How is SpaceX’s unlock schedule arranged, and when does Musk’s stake expire?
According to reports, the unlock schedule is conducted in tranches: about 20% after the Q2 earnings, about 28% triggered by the Q3 earnings, with all unlocked on Dec. 8. Musk himself holds 640 million shares locked until June 12, 2027.
