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Stanford Study Finds $8.2M in Suspected Gains From BTC Prediction Market Price Manipulation on Polymarket

GateNews
Prediction Market
BTC-0.22%
According to a joint study by Stanford University and Singapore Management University released on June 30, traders on Polymarket's 5-minute Bitcoin prediction market may have temporarily manipulated spot prices to their advantage, with suspected manipulators gaining approximately $8.2 million. The research, published on arXiv, analyzed Polymarket's BTC Up/Down contracts alongside Binance spot trading data. Researchers identified 821 wallets (0.3% of approximately 243,000 total) that repeatedly participated in suspected manipulation and generated above-baseline profits. The study found that orders spiked sharply in the seconds before contract settlement, with prices quickly reversing post-settlement, suggesting temporary price pushes rather than information-driven trades. General investors experienced significantly higher loss rates during suspected manipulation windows. The researchers proposed longer contract durations as a mitigation strategy, noting that 15-minute contracts showed substantially reduced manipulation signals compared to 5-minute ones.
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