State Street Says Middle East Escalation Unlikely to Alter Market Outlook; Assumes Brent at $80/Barrel for Rest of 2026

According to Elliot Hentov, chief macro strategist at State Street Global Advisors, on July 9, escalation of Middle East conflict is unlikely to fundamentally change market prospects. Hentov noted that little has emerged since April regarding parties' willingness for war or risk of further escalation, suggesting both sides do not seek full-scale hostilities and the conflict may ultimately subside. In State Street's spring war scenario forecasting, the firm assumes Brent crude oil prices will trade around $80 per barrel for the remainder of 2026 to reflect residual risks inherent in any ceasefire.
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