Blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain identified three crypto wallets—mintblade, GRIMDRIP, and EndlessFate—on June 21. They won 13 out of 16 settled bets in the World Cup prediction market, for total profits of $24.25 million; the three wallets withdrew their funds and transferred them using the same Binance deposit address (0xB08B…317D).
Bet records and profit amounts for the three wallets
(Source: Lookonchain)
According to Lookonchain’s on-chain analysis records:
mintblade: All 5 bets were profitable, with zero loss. Profit: $9.24 million.
GRIMDRIP: 2 profitable trades, profit: $7.6 million.
EndlessFate: Of 9 bets, 6 predictions were correct, profit: $7.41 million.
A shared behavioral feature across the three accounts is: after recorded profits appeared, they immediately stopped placing bets and withdrew funds, rather than continuing trading.
Lookonchain’s on-chain findings: shared Binance deposit address
Lookonchain noted that because exchanges usually assign a separate deposit address to each customer, the fact that the three wallets share the same deposit address, 0xB08B…317D, may indicate that these accounts belong to the same person or the same organization. However, blockchain analyst Specter said that since the start of the World Cup, other wallets have also shown similar trading patterns, but provided no evidence directly linking these accounts to the three accounts found by Lookonchain.
It’s important to note that sharing a deposit address and transaction records alone cannot prove that someone obtained non-public information. Prediction market users can build large positions when liquidity is sufficient, betting in the opposite direction of popular results; when there are upsets or draws, they can earn substantial returns. As of the time of publication, Polymarket and Binance have not publicly responded.
Polymarket and Kalshi rules, and U.S. congressional legislative progress
Polymarket’s rules clearly prohibit trading by people who have access to confidential information or who can influence market outcomes; Kalshi also places restrictions on athletes, political candidates, and other participants related to the listed events.
U.S. congressional lawmakers have considered more than ten proposals related to prediction markets, including limiting sports contracts, political trading, markets related to war and death, and using campaign funds for betting; as of the time of reporting, these bills have made no substantive progress and have not become law.
Polymarket World Cup champion contracts have accumulated total trading volume of about $3 billion. The total trading volume for Polymarket and Kalshi World Cup contracts in the opening phase has already exceeded $5 billion.
FAQ
Is it enough for the three wallets to share the same Binance deposit address to prove they are operated by the same party?
According to Lookonchain’s explanation, sharing the same deposit address may indicate that the accounts belong to the same person or organization, because exchanges typically assign a separate address to each customer; however, this does not constitute proof of identity or behavioral intent, nor does it rule out other explanations. As of the time of publication, Polymarket and Binance have not publicly commented.
Does the three wallets’ high win rate necessarily indicate misconduct?
According to the report, CryptoSlate explicitly pointed out that large profits do not necessarily mean there is misconduct. Prediction market users can seek high returns by taking on high risk rather than relying on non-public information. At present, there is no public evidence that these accounts used information that other market participants could not access.
After the fishalive incident, does this indicate that Polymarket has systemic abnormalities?
According to reports, blockchain analyst Specter said that since the start of the World Cup, there have been other wallets showing similar patterns, but no public report has yet linked these cases to each other. Polymarket has clearly banned people who have confidential information from trading in its rules, but anonymity in prediction markets makes post-event investigations extremely difficult.
