The Trump administration published a final regulation limiting F-visa international students to a maximum 4-year stay in the United States, with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) posting the rule in the Federal Register on the 16th. Michael A. Clemens, economics professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), projects the measure could cause annual economic losses of up to $400 billion. The regulation requires students needing to stay beyond four years to undergo DHS extension procedures, with approval contingent on presenting clear academic plans.
Clemens Projects $200-400 Billion Annual Economic Loss
Clemens stated in a report released on the 28th that the measure will harm all Americans by deepening the US trade deficit and reducing high-skilled labor supply, thereby undermining US innovation and productivity. Citing analysis commissioned from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, he reported that if annual international student inflows decline by one-third on a sustained basis, the US economy would experience annual losses of approximately $200 billion to $400 billion. This represents about 0.7% to 1.3% of US GDP, equivalent to the entire economic output of Utah or South Carolina disappearing, according to the report.
Foreign STEM Graduates Patent at 4x Rate of US Graduates
Clemens expressed concern that the regulation will dramatically restrict the influx of high-skilled foreign talent in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields, which are central to US economic innovation and productivity growth. High-skilled foreign STEM workers who are educated in the US and remain after graduation file patents for new inventions at a rate four times higher than general college graduates and establish high-growth startup companies at a rate six times higher, according to the report. Clemens noted that providing higher education to foreigners constitutes an export for the United States, accounting for approximately 5% of US service exports.
DHS Regulation Requires Extension Approval After 4 Years
The DHS published the final regulation in the Federal Register on the 16th, requiring F-visa holders to stay in the United States for a maximum of four years. Students needing to remain beyond four years must undergo extension procedures with DHS, and extensions may not be approved if they fail to clearly present academic-related plans.
Congressional Review Act Could Block September Implementation
Clemens projected that the regulation, which could be implemented as early as September, may be blocked by the Congressional Review Act introduced in Congress. He also noted the possibility that courts could invalidate the regulation on grounds that the administration neglected its obligation to carefully consider economic impacts.
FAQ
What did the Trump administration do on the 16th regarding F-visa students?
The Department of Homeland Security published a final regulation in the Federal Register on the 16th limiting F-visa international students to a maximum 4-year stay in the United States, with extension procedures required for longer stays.
How much economic loss does Professor Clemens project from the F-visa regulation?
Michael A. Clemens projects annual economic losses of approximately $200 billion to $400 billion if international student inflows decline by one-third on a sustained basis, representing 0.7% to 1.3% of US GDP according to analysis from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.
When could the F-visa regulation be implemented?
The regulation could be implemented as early as September, though Clemens notes it may be blocked by the Congressional Review Act or invalidated by courts.
