Iran-Israel War Triggers Global Insolvency Surge, Threatening 2.2M Jobs

Gate News message, April 27 — The ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran is expected to trigger a sharp rise in global business failures, with credit insurer Allianz Trade forecasting worldwide insolvencies could surge 6 percent in 2026, up 2 percentage points from pre-war projections. The war, which began February 28, has destroyed over 80 energy assets across Gulf states, disrupting oil, gas, and trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries one-fifth of global crude supplies. If the strait remains closed beyond summer, insolvencies could reach 10 percent in 2026 and 3 percent in 2027, potentially adding nearly 15,000 additional insolvencies across major economies.

Asia will account for 54 percent of the global increase, with China's business failures projected to rise 9 percent in 2026 and 5 percent in 2027. Germany faces the steepest climb among developed economies at 10 percent, followed by the US at 7 percent and France at 4 percent, while UK insolvencies are expected to fall 1 percent but remain roughly 30 percent above pre-Brexit levels. The conflict could put approximately 2.2 million jobs at risk globally in 2026, particularly in construction, retail, and services sectors. Oil has hovered near $100 a barrel, with rising energy, freight, and input costs squeezing business margins and creating structural risks in global tanker markets.