U.S. April CPI Expected to Hit 3.7%, Highest Since September 2023, as Rental Adjustment Adds 0.1 Percentage Points

According to Wrightson ICAP chief economist Lou Crandall and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, April's consumer price index is expected to rise 3.7% year-over-year on May 12, marking the largest increase since September 2023. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is projected to increase 0.3% month-over-month, likely rounding to 0.4%.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics plans a one-time adjustment to rental and owner's equivalent rent data. Crandall stated that April's report will incorporate actual data from this rental sample, which should drive a notable catch-up effect. This special factor is expected to add approximately 0.1 percentage points to core CPI growth for the month.