The US Treasury prepared an internal draft report warning that the artificial intelligence industry carries risks similar to the dot-com bubble that collapsed in the early 2000s, according to a document obtained by political outlet NOTUS on 6일(현지시간). Treasury analysts assessed that the AI sector is more deeply integrated into the US economy and financial markets than the dot-com era, potentially leading to systemic risks if the market cools rapidly. The report diagnosed that an AI market downturn could trigger corporate investment contraction, deteriorating investor sentiment, and economic slowdown, with shocks spreading beyond stock markets to data center financing, private credit markets, cloud service providers, semiconductor manufacturers, and utility industries.
Report Identifies Systemic Risk Factors in AI Sector
The draft report evaluated that the financial system operates on the premise of AI companies achieving productivity improvements and profitability realization, identifying this as a risk factor. Analysts diagnosed that shocks could spread across financial markets if data center investment funding contracts or AI companies' growth falls short of expectations. The report noted that the AI industry's business interconnectivity is significantly higher than in the past, allowing investment contraction or demand slowdown at specific companies to rapidly spread across the entire sector.
Concentration and Infrastructure Dependencies Highlighted as Vulnerabilities
The report analyzed that investment concentration in a small number of companies, high dependence on private capital, and large-scale infrastructure investment centered on data centers create conditions where supply chain disruptions, geopolitical conflicts, and power shortages could constrain growth. The document raised the possibility that risks could transfer to major banks, hedge funds, and private credit markets if AI companies fail to demonstrate higher productivity and profitability than current levels or fail to monetize services.
![Scott Bessent]()
Scott Bessent [Source: Yonhap News]
Treasury Spokesperson Clarifies Official Position on AI Growth
The Treasury stated that the draft report has not undergone official approval procedures and does not reflect the government's official position. A Treasury spokesperson clarified that "the official position of the Treasury and Secretary Scott Bessent is that AI will be a core growth engine leading America's new golden age," adding that "AI will significantly increase productivity and expand economic opportunities." The report noted that current major AI companies have much stronger profitability and financial structures compared to dot-com era companies, meaning the possibility of sudden financial market collapse similar to that period remains limited even if a bubble bursts.
FAQ
What did the US Treasury draft report warn about the AI industry?
The draft report warned that the AI industry carries risks similar to the dot-com bubble that collapsed in the early 2000s, with Treasury analysts assessing that the sector is more deeply integrated into the US economy and financial markets than during the dot-com era.
Why does the Treasury report identify the AI sector as a systemic risk?
The report identified systemic risk because the financial system operates on the premise of AI companies achieving productivity improvements and profitability, with investment concentration in few companies, high dependence on private capital, and large-scale data center infrastructure creating conditions where shocks could spread across financial markets if growth expectations are not met.
What is the Treasury's official position on AI despite the draft report's warnings?
A Treasury spokesperson clarified that the official position of the Treasury and Secretary Scott Bessent is that AI will be a core growth engine leading America's new golden age, significantly increasing productivity and expanding economic opportunities, while noting the draft has not undergone official approval and does not reflect government policy.
