1. Market Overview: Surge then Retreat, Loses $64,000

On July 25, Bitcoin saw a sharp surge and retreat. Early Friday morning, BTC briefly climbed to $65,705, but soon faced heavy sell pressure. Within seven hours, it slid to an intraday low of $63,666. The market cap evaporated by more than $20 million. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is temporarily around $63,878, with a daily decline of about 0.30%.
This drop triggered large-scale leverage position liquidations—across the whole market, $312 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, including $70 million liquidated from Bitcoin long positions. 91,975 crypto traders were liquidated within 24 hours, with total liquidations reaching $342 million.

2. Macros and Policy: Mixed Forces
Bearish factors are in the lead. U.S. tech giants were hit by a selloff wave, with single-day market value losses of $797 billion. Trump plans to impose 10%-12.5% tariffs on 60 trade partners; inflation expectations are heating up, and the market worries that a Fed rate cut may be delayed, putting overall pressure on risk assets. Escalation in geopolitical tensions has also prompted investors to trim positions in risk assets.
Policy is also not encouraging. The market had broadly expected the U.S. “CLARITY Digital Assets Act” to be implemented—an important fundamental support for this round of gains. However, the bill has fallen into a deadlock in bipartisan negotiations, with only a 35% probability remaining based on estimates. Still, the National Police Brotherhood has withdrawn its opposition to the bill, leaving uncertainty in the legislative process.

3. Technicals: Shorts in Control, Key Levels at Risk
Technical indicators are broadly bearish. The lower band of the Bollinger Band on the 4-hour timeframe has been pierced, and the short-side alignment is clear. MACD bullish momentum and volume continue to fade. RSI has dropped to 33.44—entering oversold territory, but funds refuse to step in. The morning rebound is capped near the Bollinger midline around $64,180, while there is strong resistance above at $64,272.
$64,000 has become the line between bulls and bears. This level is not only a psychological mark, but also aligns with the 4-hour 200 EMA and the prior consolidation zone. If the 4-hour candlesticks confirm a break below $64,000, the next target points directly to $62,335. Liquidation data shows that if BTC breaks below $61,193, the cumulative liquidation strength of long positions on mainstream CEXs would reach $1.01B.
Bitcoin is currently under a typical “policy expectations disappoint + macro bearish factors resonate” setup. In the short term, the bearish trend has not ended. The range above $64,800-$65,500 forms a strong resistance zone. Below, investors need to closely monitor whether $64,000 holds; once it breaks, the downside room for further adjustment will open up. Until policy clarity improves, the market will likely stay in a relatively weak consolidation range, and investors should watch for the further spread of cross-market panic sentiment. #Summer Creation Camp